Sport Picks
Progreso vs River Plate Montevideo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Uruguay
Copa Uruguay 
Match Events
3'
3'
Vera D.
90'
90'
Lopez I.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 0-2. This leg finished 0-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
20%
29%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Progreso
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to River Plate Montevideo lately — more wins on the board than Progreso.
- 51% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- River Plate Montevideo arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Progreso, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Progreso Clean Sheet 68%
River Plate Montevideo Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Progreso | River Plate Montevideo |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 9 | 10 |
| Draws | 1 | 8 |
| Losses | 19 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 0.79 | 1.37 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.34 | 1.23 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 26, 2026 Copa Uruguay
Progreso vs River Plate Montevideo
0:2
Sep 14, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
River Plate Montevideo vs Progreso
0:0
Mar 23, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Progreso vs River Plate Montevideo
2:1
Oct 19, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Progreso vs River Plate Montevideo
2:0
Jun 9, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Progreso vs River Plate Montevideo
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Progreso Compare
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59
River Plate Montevideo Compare
Top Goalscorer Vera D.
1 Goals Assists Leader Lopez I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Progreso 41 / 100
River Plate Montevideo 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Progreso River Plate Montevideo
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Progreso Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
River Plate Montevideo let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.
H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.
Progreso has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
River Plate Montevideo's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.
Scoring Trends
Progreso VS River Plate Montevideo
1.25 Goals Scored 1.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Progreso
(Home) 01 Nov
Progreso
0 : 2 Defensor Sp.
25 Oct
Wanderers
0 : 1 Progreso
17 Oct
Progreso
2 : 0 Juventud
10 Oct
Penarol
1 : 1 Progreso
03 Oct
Liverpool M.
3 : 2 Progreso
Page 1 of 6
01 Nov
Progreso
0 : 2 Defensor Sp.
17 Oct
Progreso
2 : 0 Juventud
26 Sept
Progreso
2 : 1 Racing Montevideo
16 Sept
Progreso
0 : 1 Club Nacional
13 Sept
Progreso
1 : 3 CA Cerro
Page 1 of 3
River Plate Montevideo
(Away) 01 Nov
River Plate Montevideo
1 : 1 Tacuarembo
24 Oct
River Plate Montevideo
1 : 2 Uruguay Montevideo FC
18 Oct
Plaza Colonia
2 : 1 River Plate Montevideo
14 Oct
Boston River
1 : 0 River Plate Montevideo
10 Oct
River Plate Montevideo
3 : 1 Club Oriental De Futbol
Page 1 of 6
18 Oct
Plaza Colonia
2 : 1 River Plate Montevideo
14 Oct
Boston River
1 : 0 River Plate Montevideo
04 Oct
La Luz
3 : 2 River Plate Montevideo
20 Sept
Cerrito
1 : 1 River Plate Montevideo
16 Sept
Albion
0 : 0 River Plate Montevideo
Page 1 of 4
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Penarol | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4:3 | 5 |
| 2 | Montevideo City | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5:4 | 4 |
| 3 | Danubio | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:5 | 4 |
| 4 | Atenas | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7:8 | 2 |
Promotion - Copa Uruguay (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plaza Colonia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4:3 | 6 |
| 2 | Cerro Largo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:3 | 4 |
| 3 | Rentistas | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2:2 | 4 |
| 4 | Defensor Sp. | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1:2 | 2 |
Promotion - Copa Uruguay (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maldonado | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8:2 | 6 |
| 2 | Cerrito | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:3 | 6 |
| 3 | Wanderers | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3:8 | 4 |
| 4 | CA Cerro | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:5 | 1 |
Promotion - Copa Uruguay (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Central Esp. | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8:3 | 7 |
| 2 | Juventud | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4:3 | 6 |
| 3 | Racing Montevideo | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4:8 | 3 |
| 4 | Club Oriental De Futbol | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2:4 | 1 |
Promotion - Copa Uruguay (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 5)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club Nacional | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 7 |
| 2 | Albion | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2:1 | 5 |
| 3 | River Plate Montevideo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 4 | Progreso | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1:5 | 0 |
Promotion - Copa Uruguay (Play Offs)
League Standings (Group 6)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boston River | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6:2 | 9 |
| 2 | Liverpool M. | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 3 | Fenix | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5:8 | 1 |
| 4 | Colon | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3:8 | 1 |
Promotion - Copa Uruguay (Play Offs)
