Sport Picks

Uruguay

Copa Uruguay

Progreso

0 - 2

River Plate Montevideo

Our Tip

Match Events

Vera D.

90'

Lopez I.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-2. This leg finished 0-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%

Progreso

20%

Draws

36%

River Plate Montevideo

Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Progreso

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence

Form's been kind to River Plate Montevideo lately — more wins on the board than Progreso.
Progreso are the model's pick here, at 36%.
River Plate Montevideo arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
Historical meetings favor Progreso, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 35%

Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 6%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%

Progreso Clean Sheet 18%

River Plate Montevideo Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Progreso	River Plate Montevideo
Matches Played	29	27
Wins	6	10
Draws	4	7
Losses	19	10
Goals Scored	0.76	1.48
Goals Conceded	1.45	1.41
Expected Goals (xG)	0.69	1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 26, 2026 Copa Uruguay

Progreso vs River Plate Montevideo

0:2

Sep 14, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya

River Plate Montevideo vs Progreso

0:0

Mar 23, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya

Progreso vs River Plate Montevideo

2:1

Oct 19, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya

Progreso vs River Plate Montevideo

2:0

Jun 9, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya

Progreso vs River Plate Montevideo

1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Progreso Compare

Avg xG / game 0.53

Avg xA / game 0.34

River Plate Montevideo Compare

Top Goalscorer Vera D.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Lopez I.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.19

Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Progreso 36 / 100

River Plate Montevideo 35 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Progreso River Plate Montevideo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

River Plate Montevideo let in goals in 70% of their last 27 matches.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Progreso scored in 55% of their last 29 outings.

Recent resilience: Progreso stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Progreso VS River Plate Montevideo

0.5 Goals Scored 1.38

1.25 Goals Conceded 0.88

50% Over 1.5 63%

25% Over 2.5 38%

0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Progreso

(Home)

13 Sept

Progreso

1 : 3

CA Cerro

07 Sept

Albion

0 : 1

Progreso

03 Sept

Albion

2 : 1

Progreso

29 Aug

Progreso

1 : 0

Danubio

26 Aug

Progreso

0 : 2

River Plate Montevideo

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River Plate Montevideo

(Away)

06 Sept

Atenas

3 : 2

River Plate Montevideo

03 Sept

River Plate Montevideo

2 : 3

Club Nacional

30 Aug

River Plate Montevideo

0 : 0

Rentistas

26 Aug

Progreso

0 : 2

River Plate Montevideo

22 Aug

Paysandu FC

0 : 0

River Plate Montevideo

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