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Progresso vs Real Sao Luiz

Brazil Brazil

Roraimense 2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Progresso play Real Sao Luiz in the Roraimense 2024. Real Sao Luiz are favorites here. Recently, Progresso averaged 0.61 goals scored and 3.81 conceded. Real Sao Luiz averaged 1.73 goals scored and 1.43 conceded. In past meetings, Progresso won 0, Real Sao Luiz won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 2, 2024 ended 0:6. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.90 for Progresso and 2.67 for Real Sao Luiz. This points to a Real Sao Luiz double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

14%
Progresso
16%
Draws
70%
Real Sao Luiz
Draw rate projection: 16% Favored: Real Sao Luiz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Progresso picked up more points recently compared to Real Sao Luiz.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.90 vs 2.67 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 70%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 88%
Over 1.5 Goals 78%
Over 2.5 Goals 70%
Over 3.5 Goals 42%
Over 4.5 Goals 21%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 40%
Progresso Clean Sheet 10%
Real Sao Luiz Clean Sheet 17%
First Half Goal 70%
Second Half Goal 74%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Progresso Real Sao Luiz
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 2 11
Draws 3 7
Losses 26 12
Goals Scored 0.61 1.73
Goals Conceded 3.81 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 0.13 1.33
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 4.00 1.67

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 2, 2024 Roraimense
Progresso vs Real Sao Luiz
0:6
Mar 22, 2023 Roraimense
Real Sao Luiz vs Progresso
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Progresso Compare

Avg xG / game 0.1
Avg xA / game 0.07

Real Sao Luiz Compare

Top Goalscorer Josinaldo B.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Matheus Nego
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.21
Avg xA / game 0.74

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Progresso 15 / 100
Real Sao Luiz 66 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Progresso Real Sao Luiz

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Real Sao Luiz Win (2)
Secondary Pick Real Sao Luiz & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +133.4%
16.67
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.2%
1.56
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Progresso attacking → ← attacking Real Sao Luiz

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Progresso scored in 29% of their last 31 games.

Real Sao Luiz let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

Progresso went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Real Sao Luiz lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

9 Points in last 5 40
0.13 Goals expected (xG) 1.33
4.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.67

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Sao Raimundo RR33009:19
2Nautico FC31114:44
3Atl. Roraima30212:62
4Atl. Rio Negro (Roraima)30121:51
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Gremio Atletico Sampaio440013:412
2Monte Roraima42119:47
3River Esporte Clube42119:57
4Real Sao Luiz41038:63
5Progresso40041:210