Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Progresul Mogosoaia vs CSM Alexandria - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Romania Romania

Liga 3 - Seria 5
Sat, Nov 7, 2026
VS
12:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Progresul Mogosoaia host CSM Alexandria in the Liga 3 - Seria 5. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Progresul Mogosoaia have averaged 1.47 scored and 1.73 conceded recently, against CSM Alexandria's 1.62 scored and 1.24 conceded. Head-to-head, Progresul Mogosoaia have won 0 to CSM Alexandria's 0, with 1 draws. They last met on Aug 28, 2026, ending 2:2. xG projections (1.19 - 1.81) back CSM Alexandria to edge this. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Progresul Mogosoaia
20%
Draws
47%
CSM Alexandria
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: CSM Alexandria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and CSM Alexandria come out ahead of Progresul Mogosoaia on wins alone.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Liga 3 - Seria 5 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Progresul Mogosoaia Clean Sheet 11%
CSM Alexandria Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Progresul Mogosoaia CSM Alexandria
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 13 14
Draws 4 7
Losses 13 8
Goals Scored 1.47 1.62
Goals Conceded 1.73 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 28, 2026 Liga 3 - Seria 5
CSM Alexandria vs Progresul Mogosoaia
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Progresul Mogosoaia 30 / 100
CSM Alexandria 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Progresul Mogosoaia CSM Alexandria

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CSM Alexandria Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Progresul Mogosoaia found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

CSM Alexandria's defensive record shows goals conceded in 62% of 29 matches.

Progresul Mogosoaia went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Progresul Mogosoaia VS CSM Alexandria
1.75 Goals Scored 1.5
2.13 Goals Conceded 0.63
88% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Progresul Mogosoaia

(Home)
30 Oct
Adunatii-Copaceni
2 : 0
Progresul Mogosoaia
24 Oct
Progresul Mogosoaia
4 : 2
Oxigen Bucuresti
16 Oct
FCSB 2
5 : 2
Progresul Mogosoaia
10 Oct
Progresul Mogosoaia
2 : 1
Inter Ilfov
03 Oct
SCM Dunarea Giurgiu
1 : 1
Progresul Mogosoaia
Page 1 of 6

CSM Alexandria

(Away)
31 Oct
Oxigen Bucuresti
0 : 2
CSM Alexandria
23 Oct
CSM Alexandria
0 : 3
Inter Ilfov
16 Oct
Cetatea Turnu Magurele
1 : 1
CSM Alexandria
09 Oct
CSM Alexandria
1 : 0
Din. Bucuresti 2
02 Oct
Voluntari 2
0 : 2
CSM Alexandria
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Omega Sport 11 7 4 0 15:7 25
2 Inter Ilfov 11 7 2 2 28:16 23
3 SCM Dunarea Giurgiu 11 6 5 0 27:16 23
4 CSM Alexandria 11 6 3 2 16:10 21
5 Progresul Mogosoaia 11 4 3 4 17:21 15
6 Adunatii-Copaceni 11 5 0 6 9:17 15
7 Cetatea Turnu Magurele 11 2 6 3 21:15 12
8 Din. Bucuresti 2 11 4 0 7 14:20 12
9 Voluntari 2 11 3 2 6 16:20 11
10 FCSB 2 11 3 1 7 22:30 10
11 Oxigen Bucuresti 11 3 1 7 14:23 10
12 Progresul Spartac 11 2 1 8 12:16 7
Promotion - Liga 3 - Promotion Group 2026/2027 (Main)
Relegation - Liga 3 - Seria 5 (Relegation Group)