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Progresul Pecica vs Metalurgistul Cugir - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Romania Romania

Liga 3 - Seria 7
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
12:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Progresul Pecica host Metalurgistul Cugir in the Liga 3 - Seria 7. Neither defense has been convincing lately, which should mean goals. Metalurgistul Cugir have shipped 1.63 goals a game lately, while Progresul Pecica have conceded 2.03 and scored 1.69. Past meetings favor Metalurgistul Cugir slightly — 0-1-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 28, 2026, ending 3:3. xG projections (1.69 - 2.06) back Metalurgistul Cugir to edge this. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
Progresul Pecica
20%
Draws
36%
Metalurgistul Cugir
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Progresul Pecica

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Progresul Pecica come out ahead of Metalurgistul Cugir on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Progresul Pecica Clean Sheet 10%
Metalurgistul Cugir Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Progresul Pecica Metalurgistul Cugir
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 8
Draws 4 9
Losses 15 13
Goals Scored 1.69 1.73
Goals Conceded 2.03 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 28, 2026 Liga 3 - Seria 7
Progresul Pecica vs Metalurgistul Cugir
3:3
Oct 31, 2025 Liga 3 - Seria 7
Metalurgistul Cugir vs Progresul Pecica
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Progresul Pecica 34 / 100
Metalurgistul Cugir 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Progresul Pecica Metalurgistul Cugir

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Metalurgistul Cugir Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Metalurgistul Cugir has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 4.50 goals when they meet.

Progresul Pecica scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

Progresul Pecica went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Progresul Pecica VS Metalurgistul Cugir
1.88 Goals Scored 2.38
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Progresul Pecica

(Home)
09 Oct
Ghiroda & Giarmata Vii
5 : 0
Progresul Pecica
03 Oct
Progresul Pecica
2 : 1
Blaj
26 Sept
Unirea Santana
4 : 1
Progresul Pecica
22 Sept
Progresul Pecica
6 : 0
Univ. Alba Iulia
18 Sept
Timisul Sag
3 : 0
Progresul Pecica
Page 1 of 6

Metalurgistul Cugir

(Away)
09 Oct
Metalurgistul Cugir
0 : 2
CSM Deva
02 Oct
Politehnica Timisoara II
1 : 1
Metalurgistul Cugir
26 Sept
Metalurgistul Cugir
1 : 3
Viitorul Arad
23 Sept
AFC Nera Bogodinti
0 : 3
Metalurgistul Cugir
18 Sept
Metalurgistul Cugir
2 : 2
Unirea Alba-Iulia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Blaj 7 5 1 1 17:11 16
2 Unirea Santana 7 5 0 2 14:4 15
3 Unirea Alba-Iulia 7 4 2 1 21:4 14
4 Timisul Sag 7 4 2 1 8:4 14
5 CSM Deva 7 3 3 1 18:12 12
6 Progresul Pecica 7 3 1 3 15:13 10
7 Viitorul Arad 7 2 3 2 8:11 9
8 Ghiroda & Giarmata Vii 7 2 3 2 8:12 9
9 Metalurgistul Cugir 7 1 3 3 10:12 6
10 Politehnica Timisoara II 7 1 1 5 9:19 4
11 Univ. Alba Iulia 7 0 3 4 4:13 3
12 AFC Nera Bogodinti 7 0 2 5 2:19 2
Promotion - Liga 3 - Promotion Group 2026/2027 (Main)
Relegation - Liga 3 - Seria 7 (Relegation Group)