Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Provincial Ovalle vs Real San Joaquin

Chile Chile

Segunda Division Estadio Diaguita
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Gonzalez B.
10' Event
Gonzalez B.
38' Event
Maureira D.

AI Match Summary

Real San Joaquin in this Segunda Division matchup, with the score ending 1-6 — backing the pre-match view that favored Real San Joaquin.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Provincial Ovalle
6%
Draws
90%
Real San Joaquin
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Real San Joaquin

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Provincial Ovalle lately — more wins on the board than Real San Joaquin.
  • Win probability leans Real San Joaquin's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Provincial Ovalle Clean Sheet 13%
Real San Joaquin Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Provincial Ovalle Real San Joaquin
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 8 7
Draws 7 6
Losses 14 17
Goals Scored 0.75 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.75 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 21, 2026 Segunda Division
Provincial Ovalle vs Real San Joaquin
1:6
Apr 19, 2026 Segunda Division
Real San Joaquin vs Provincial Ovalle
3:2
Nov 8, 2025 Segunda Division
Real San Joaquin vs Provincial Ovalle
1:0
May 30, 2025 Segunda Division
Provincial Ovalle vs Real San Joaquin
0:0
Oct 12, 2024 Segunda Division
Real San Joaquin vs Provincial Ovalle
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Provincial Ovalle Compare

Top Goalscorer Tarifeno R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Real San Joaquin Compare

Top Goalscorer Gonzalez B.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Maureira D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Provincial Ovalle 10 / 100
Real San Joaquin 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Provincial Ovalle Real San Joaquin

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick REA Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Real San Joaquin let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Real San Joaquin's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Attacking prowess: Provincial Ovalle scored in 59% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Provincial Ovalle VS Real San Joaquin
0.75 Goals Scored 1.63
1.75 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Brujas Salamanca1257011:522
2Concon National1263316:1021
3Santiago City1255218:1920
4Trasandino1253419:1718
5Real San Joaquin1234516:1713
6Atletico Colina1233615:1412
7Provincial Ovalle1213811:246
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Osorno1266015:524
2Colchagua CD1264215:1122
3Linares Unido1261516:1219
4General Velasquez1251611:1516
5Lota Schwager1234511:1313
6Deportes Rengo1232710:1711
7S. Morning122469:1410