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PSG vs Aston Villa Prediction & H2H Stats

Europe Europe

UEFA Super Cup Red Bull Arena, Salzburg
Our Tip

Match Events

20' Event
Kvaratskhelia K.
Assist: Doue D.
45' Event
Madjo B.
Assist: McGinn J.
46'
Sub
Akliouche M. In: Dembele O.
Out: Akliouche M.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. This leg finished 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
PSG
15%
Draws
46%
Aston Villa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Aston Villa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to PSG lately — more wins on the board than Aston Villa.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • PSG have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor PSG, who have won 2 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and PSG have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
PSG Clean Sheet 20%
Aston Villa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric PSG Aston Villa
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 17 14
Draws 6 3
Losses 6 13
Goals Scored 2.1 2
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 12, 2026 UEFA Super Cup
PSG vs Aston Villa
2:1
Apr 15, 2025 Champions League
Aston Villa vs PSG
3:2
Apr 9, 2025 Champions League
PSG vs Aston Villa
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

PSG Compare

Top Goalscorer Kvaratskhelia K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Doue D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Aston Villa Compare

Top Goalscorer Madjo B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

PSG 31 / 100
Aston Villa 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
PSG Aston Villa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PSG Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

PSG's goal record stands at 93% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Aston Villa's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: PSG stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

PSG VS Aston Villa
1.88 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

PSG

(Home)
20 Sept
Marseille
1 : 2
PSG
13 Sept
Brest
0 : 1
PSG
09 Sept
PSG
6 : 1
Slovan Bratislava
04 Sept
PSG
1 : 2
Monaco
28 Aug
Lille
2 : 2
PSG
Page 1 of 6

Aston Villa

(Away)
02 Oct
Sevilla
1 : 3
Aston Villa
19 Sept
Tottenham
2 : 3
Aston Villa
16 Sept
Coventry
1 : 3
Aston Villa
12 Sept
Aston Villa
1 : 2
Nottingham
08 Sept
Club Brugge
2 : 3
Aston Villa
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
PSG 2
Aston Villa 1