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PSIM Yogyakarta vs Bali United

Indonesia Indonesia

Super League Mandala Krida Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

PSIM Yogyakarta play Bali United in the Super League. It looks like a close match. Recently, PSIM Yogyakarta averaged 1.27 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Bali United averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. In past meetings, PSIM Yogyakarta won 1, Bali United won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Feb 23, 2026 ended 3:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.25 for PSIM Yogyakarta and 1.69 for Bali United. This points to a Bali United double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
PSIM Yogyakarta
30%
Draws
38%
Bali United
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Bali United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • PSIM Yogyakarta picked up more points recently compared to Bali United.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 1.69 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 57%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 71%
Over 2.5 Goals 57%
Over 3.5 Goals 34%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%
PSIM Yogyakarta Clean Sheet 13%
Bali United Clean Sheet 11%
First Half Goal 64%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric PSIM Yogyakarta Bali United
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 13
Draws 10 7
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 1.27 1.67
Goals Conceded 1.4 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 23, 2026 Super League
PSIM Yogyakarta vs Bali United
3:3
Sep 20, 2025 Super League
Bali United vs PSIM Yogyakarta
1:3
Jul 26, 2025 Club Friendly
Bali United vs PSIM Yogyakarta
6:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

PSIM Yogyakarta Compare

Top Goalscorer Sheva S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ramos Mingo F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Bali United Compare

Top Goalscorer Goppel T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Receveur T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

PSIM Yogyakarta 31 / 100
Bali United 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
PSIM Yogyakarta Bali United

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Bali United or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +33.4%
4.17
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.7%
1.96
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

PSIM Yogyakarta attacking → ← attacking Bali United

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

PSIM Yogyakarta scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Bali United let in goals in 63% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 5.33 goals.

PSIM Yogyakarta went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Bali United lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

37 Points in last 5 46
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 2.13
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Persib Bandung34247359:2279
2Borneo34254574:3179
3Persija Jakarta34225765:2971
4Persebaya341610861:3558
5FC Bhayangkara341651353:4553
6Malut United341581168:5353
7Dewa United341651344:3753
8Bali United341491157:4851
9Arema FC341391253:4748
10Persita341361538:3745
11PSIM Yogyakarta3411121143:4445
12Persik Kediri341161742:6139
13Persijap Jepara34991631:4536
14Madura United34981737:5435
15PSM Makassar348101639:4934
16Persis Solo348101639:5934
17Semen Padang34552422:6520
18PSBS Biak Numfor34462431:9518