Sport Picks

Netherlands

Eredivisie 2025/2026 Philips Stadion

Excelsior

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

PSV play Excelsior in the Eredivisie 2025/2026. PSV are favorites here. Recently, PSV averaged 2.68 goals scored and 1.42 conceded. Excelsior averaged 1.41 goals scored and 1.48 conceded. In past meetings, PSV won 5, Excelsior won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jan 10, 2026 ended 5:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.38 for PSV and 1.88 for Excelsior. This points to a PSV double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%

PSV

15%

Draws

28%

Excelsior

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: PSV

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

83% / High Confidence

PSV picked up more points recently compared to Excelsior.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.38 vs 1.88 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 74%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 91%

Over 2.5 Goals 74%

Over 3.5 Goals 44%

Over 4.5 Goals 22%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72%

PSV Clean Sheet 10%

Excelsior Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 82%

Second Half Goal 86%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	PSV	Excelsior
Matches Played	31	29
Wins	21	9
Draws	3	8
Losses	7	12
Goals Scored	2.68	1.41
Goals Conceded	1.42	1.48
Expected Goals (xG)	3.25	2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.75	1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 10, 2026 Eredivisie

PSV vs Excelsior

Possession: 49% - 48% Cards: 3 - 1

5:1

Sep 27, 2025 Eredivisie

Excelsior vs PSV

Possession: 56% - 55% Cards: 4 - 0

1:2

Jan 14, 2025 KNVB Beker

PSV vs Excelsior

Possession: 40% - 41% Cards: 3 - 1

5:4

Apr 2, 2024 Eredivisie

Excelsior vs PSV

Possession: 51% - 47% Cards: 4 - 1

0:2

Jan 13, 2024 Eredivisie

PSV vs Excelsior

Possession: 46% - 44% Cards: 4 - 4

3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

PSV Compare

Top Goalscorer Wanner P.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Pepi R.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 2.5

Avg xA / game 1.63

Excelsior Compare

Top Goalscorer Bronkhorst I.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.82

Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

PSV 53 / 100

Excelsior 27 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

PSV Excelsior

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PSV Win (1)

Secondary Pick PSV & Over 2.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +16.3%

2.04

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +8.8%

1.47

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

PSV attacking → ← attacking Excelsior

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

PSV scored in 97% of their last 31 games.

Excelsior let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 4.80 goals.

PSV went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Excelsior lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

66 Points in last 5 35

3.25 Goals expected (xG) 2.00

1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	PSV	34	27	3	4	101:45	84
2	Feyenoord	34	19	8	7	70:44	65
3	Nijmegen	34	16	11	7	77:53	59
4	Twente	34	15	13	6	59:40	58
5	Ajax	34	14	14	6	62:41	56
6	Utrecht	34	15	8	11	55:42	53
7	AZ Alkmaar	34	14	10	10	58:51	52
8	Heerenveen	34	14	9	11	57:53	51
9	Groningen	34	14	6	14	49:45	48
10	Sparta Rotterdam	34	12	7	15	40:62	43
11	Sittard	34	11	6	17	49:63	39
12	G.A. Eagles	34	8	14	12	54:53	38
13	Excelsior	34	10	8	16	43:56	38
14	Telstar	34	9	10	15	49:55	37
15	Zwolle	34	9	10	15	44:71	37
16	FC Volendam	34	8	8	18	35:55	32
17	NAC Breda	34	6	11	17	35:58	29
18	Heracles	34	5	4	25	35:85	19