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Puebla de la Calzada vs Arroyo Prediction & H2H Stats

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Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Pozo A.

AI Match Summary

Puebla de la Calzada in this Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Puebla de la Calzada.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Puebla de la Calzada
20%
Draws
10%
Arroyo
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Puebla de la Calzada

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Arroyo haven't matched Puebla de la Calzada's recent run of results.
  • Puebla de la Calzada are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Puebla de la Calzada Clean Sheet 68%
Arroyo Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Puebla de la Calzada Arroyo
Matches Played 34 35
Wins 11 7
Draws 8 8
Losses 15 20
Goals Scored 1.15 1
Goals Conceded 1.41 1.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 9, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Puebla de la Calzada vs Arroyo
1:0
Oct 27, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Arroyo vs Puebla de la Calzada
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Puebla de la Calzada Compare

Top Goalscorer Pozo A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.61

Arroyo Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Puebla de la Calzada 95 / 100
Arroyo 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Puebla de la Calzada Arroyo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Puebla de la Calzada Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Arroyo conceded in 77% of 35 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.50 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Puebla de la Calzada stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Away concern: Arroyo has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Puebla de la Calzada VS -
1.25 Goals Scored 0
2 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
63% Over 2.5 0%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Puebla de la Calzada

(Home)
27 Sept
Puebla de la Calzada
1 : 2
Quintana
19 Sept
UP Plasencia
0 : 3
Puebla de la Calzada
13 Sept
Puebla de la Calzada
2 : 0
Castuera
06 Sept
Jerez CF
2 : 2
Puebla de la Calzada
19 Aug
Puebla de la Calzada
0 : 2
CD Badajoz
Page 1 of 7

Arroyo

(Away)
11 May
Arroyo
2 : 2
CD Calamonte
04 May
Montijo
1 : 0
Arroyo
27 Apr
Arroyo
1 : 4
SP Villafranca
17 Apr
Moralo
5 : 0
Arroyo
13 Apr
Arroyo
1 : 2
CD Diocesano
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CD Extremadura 34 23 6 5 73:22 75
2 CD Azuaga 34 20 11 3 65:28 71
3 Jaraiz 34 21 6 7 65:40 69
4 AD Llerenense 34 21 5 8 58:28 68
5 CD Badajoz 34 17 12 5 54:20 63
6 CD Diocesano 34 17 7 10 58:38 58
7 Santa Amalia 34 16 6 12 31:31 54
8 Jerez CF 34 14 9 11 50:48 51
9 SP Villafranca 34 14 5 15 55:55 47
10 Moralo 34 13 7 14 52:50 46
11 Montijo 34 11 12 11 35:34 45
12 Pueblonuevo 34 9 9 16 42:71 36
13 CD Calamonte 34 8 9 17 36:48 33
14 Puebla de la Calzada 34 7 11 16 35:56 32
15 Castuera 34 7 8 19 46:64 29
16 CF Trujillo 34 6 10 18 32:63 28
17 Arroyo 34 5 7 22 32:70 22
18 Olivenza FC 34 3 8 23 26:79 17
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 14 2024/2025 (Play Offs)