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Puebla vs Monterrey - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Mexico Mexico

Liga MX Estadio Cuauhtémoc, Puebla
Thu, Oct 22, 2026
VS
01:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Puebla host Monterrey in the Liga MX. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Monterrey have shipped 1.55 goals a game lately, while Puebla have conceded 1.68 and scored 1.18. Past meetings favor Monterrey slightly — 0-4-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 22, 2026, ending 2:1. xG projections (1.25 - 1.06) back Monterrey to edge this. The model calls this a Draw — both sides look evenly matched.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%
Puebla
35%
Draws
40%
Monterrey
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Monterrey

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Monterrey have won more games recently than Puebla.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Monterrey here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
Puebla Clean Sheet 20%
Monterrey Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Puebla Monterrey
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 8 12
Draws 6 6
Losses 14 11
Goals Scored 1.18 1.69
Goals Conceded 1.68 1.55
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 22, 2026 Liga MX
Monterrey vs Puebla
2:1
Aug 30, 2025 Liga MX
Puebla vs Monterrey
2:4
Jan 13, 2025 Liga MX
Monterrey vs Puebla
1:1
Aug 17, 2024 Liga MX
Puebla vs Monterrey
1:2
Jan 14, 2024 Liga MX
Monterrey vs Puebla
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Puebla 32 / 100
Monterrey 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Puebla Monterrey

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Monterrey conceded in 83% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Puebla scored in 71% of their last 28 outings.

Puebla went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Puebla VS Monterrey
0.75 Goals Scored 1.13
1 Goals Conceded 1.75
50% Over 1.5 75%
13% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Puebla

(Home)
10 Oct
Puebla
1 : 1
Club Leon
27 Sept
Tigres UANL
1 : 0
Puebla
19 Sept
Puebla
1 : 1
Atlante
16 Sept
Puebla
0 : 1
Toluca
12 Sept
Necaxa
0 : 1
Puebla
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Monterrey

(Away)
11 Oct
Club America
1 : 1
Monterrey
03 Oct
Monterrey
2 : 1
Toluca
26 Sept
Atlante
4 : 2
Monterrey
20 Sept
Monterrey
1 : 0
Cruz Azul
13 Sept
Monterrey
0 : 0
Tigres UANL
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Club America 10 6 3 1 22:11 21
2 Atlas 12 6 3 3 19:18 21
3 Toluca 11 6 2 3 25:15 20
4 Queretaro 10 6 2 2 15:8 20
5 Guadalajara Chivas 11 5 4 2 18:11 19
6 Club Leon 11 5 3 3 15:12 18
7 Cruz Azul 11 5 2 4 22:21 17
8 Club Tijuana 11 4 4 3 15:14 16
9 UNAM Pumas 12 4 4 4 19:20 16
10 Puebla 12 4 4 4 12:13 16
11 Monterrey 10 4 2 4 17:15 14
12 Pachuca 11 3 4 4 18:14 13
13 Tigres UANL 11 3 4 4 13:15 13
14 Santos Laguna 11 4 1 6 12:16 13
15 Atletico San Luis 11 3 3 5 15:20 12
16 Atlante 12 2 5 5 13:19 11
17 Necaxa 12 2 3 7 15:25 9
18 Juarez 11 1 1 9 8:26 4
Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Play Offs)