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Pueblonuevo vs CD Diocesano

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Pueblonuevo play CD Diocesano in the Tercera RFEF - Group 14. It looks like a close match. Recently, Pueblonuevo averaged 0.9 goals scored and 1.39 conceded. CD Diocesano averaged 0.87 goals scored and 1.93 conceded. In past meetings, Pueblonuevo won 2, CD Diocesano won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 2, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.50 for Pueblonuevo and 0.81 for CD Diocesano. This points to a Pueblonuevo double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Pueblonuevo
18%
Draws
35%
CD Diocesano
Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Pueblonuevo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence
  • Pueblonuevo picked up more points recently compared to CD Diocesano.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.50 vs 0.81 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 70%
Over 2.5 Goals 41%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 47%
Pueblonuevo Clean Sheet 26%
CD Diocesano Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 63%
Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pueblonuevo CD Diocesano
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 9 5
Draws 7 9
Losses 15 16
Goals Scored 0.9 0.87
Goals Conceded 1.39 1.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 2, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Pueblonuevo vs CD Diocesano
2:1
Sep 28, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
CD Diocesano vs Pueblonuevo
2:0
May 11, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
Pueblonuevo vs CD Diocesano
3:2
Jan 12, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
CD Diocesano vs Pueblonuevo
6:1
Feb 18, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 14
CD Diocesano vs Pueblonuevo
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pueblonuevo Compare

Top Goalscorer Santos F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Loreto
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

CD Diocesano Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodriguez M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pueblonuevo 48 / 100
CD Diocesano 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pueblonuevo CD Diocesano

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Pueblonuevo or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +20.3%
2.56
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +17.3%
2.86
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Pueblonuevo attacking → ← attacking CD Diocesano

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pueblonuevo scored in 61% of their last 31 games.

CD Diocesano let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Pueblonuevo went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

CD Diocesano lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

34 Points in last 5 24
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.75
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Don Benito34218570:2271
2CD Badajoz34235664:2771
3Moralo341711654:3262
4CD Azuaga34188853:3162
5Jaraiz341611753:3359
6Cabeza del Buey341512745:2957
7SP Villafranca341671145:4055
8Villanovense341581145:3653
9Montijo341371443:4246
10Jerez CF34817956:5141
11AD Llerenense341181535:4441
12Puebla de la Calzada349111435:4838
13Santa Amalia34971830:5234
14Gevora34891732:5333
15Pueblonuevo34961929:5533
16CD Diocesano346121633:6330
17Montehermoso34582124:6623
18CD Calamonte343131825:4722