Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 14

Villanovense

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Pueblonuevo play Villanovense in the Tercera RFEF - Group 14. It looks like a close match. Recently, Pueblonuevo averaged 0.9 goals scored and 1.39 conceded. Villanovense averaged 1.3 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. In past meetings, Pueblonuevo won 1, Villanovense won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 28, 2026 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Pueblonuevo and 1.50 for Villanovense. This points to a Villanovense double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%

Pueblonuevo

22%

Draws

45%

Villanovense

Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Villanovense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence

Pueblonuevo picked up more points recently compared to Villanovense.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 1.50 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 68%

Over 2.5 Goals 35%

Over 3.5 Goals 21%

Over 4.5 Goals 11%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38%

Pueblonuevo Clean Sheet 16%

Villanovense Clean Sheet 12%

First Half Goal 61%

Second Half Goal 65%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Pueblonuevo	Villanovense
Matches Played	31	30
Wins	9	12
Draws	7	7
Losses	15	11
Goals Scored	0.9	1.3
Goals Conceded	1.39	1.1
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.00	1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 28, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 14

Pueblonuevo vs Villanovense

Possession: 60% - 54% Cards: 2 - 2

2:0

Nov 16, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 14

Villanovense vs Pueblonuevo

Possession: 45% - 54% Cards: 0 - 0

1:1

May 4, 2014 Tercera RFEF - Group 14

Villanovense vs Pueblonuevo

Possession: 50% - 56% Cards: 1 - 1

3:0

Dec 15, 2013 Tercera RFEF - Group 14

Pueblonuevo vs Villanovense

Possession: 59% - 42% Cards: 2 - 3

0:1

Jan 19, 2008 Tercera RFEF - Group 14

Pueblonuevo vs Villanovense

Possession: 42% - 44% Cards: 4 - 0

0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pueblonuevo Compare

Top Goalscorer Izquierdo L.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Ivan V. C.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.77

Avg xA / game 0.5

Villanovense Compare

Avg xG / game 1.82

Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pueblonuevo 33 / 100

Villanovense 43 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Pueblonuevo Villanovense

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Villanovense or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +32%

4.00

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +20.8%

3.45

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Pueblonuevo attacking → ← attacking Villanovense

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pueblonuevo scored in 61% of their last 31 games.

Villanovense let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Pueblonuevo went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Villanovense lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

34 Points in last 5 43

1.00 Goals expected (xG) 2.00

1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Don Benito	34	21	8	5	70:22	71
2	CD Badajoz	34	23	5	6	64:27	71
3	Moralo	34	17	11	6	54:32	62
4	CD Azuaga	34	18	8	8	53:31	62
5	Jaraiz	34	16	11	7	53:33	59
6	Cabeza del Buey	34	15	12	7	45:29	57
7	SP Villafranca	34	16	7	11	45:40	55
8	Villanovense	34	15	8	11	45:36	53
9	Montijo	34	13	7	14	43:42	46
10	Jerez CF	34	8	17	9	56:51	41
11	AD Llerenense	34	11	8	15	35:44	41
12	Puebla de la Calzada	34	9	11	14	35:48	38
13	Santa Amalia	34	9	7	18	30:52	34
14	Gevora	34	8	9	17	32:53	33
15	Pueblonuevo	34	9	6	19	29:55	33
16	CD Diocesano	34	6	12	16	33:63	30
17	Montehermoso	34	5	8	21	24:66	23
18	CD Calamonte	34	3	13	18	25:47	22