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Puerto Rico vs Antigua and Barbuda

North & Central America North & Central America

CONCACAF Nations League 2023/2024
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Puerto Rico play Antigua and Barbuda in the CONCACAF Nations League 2023/2024. Puerto Rico are favorites here. Recently, Puerto Rico averaged 2.25 goals scored and 1.44 conceded. Antigua and Barbuda averaged 0.8 goals scored and 2.37 conceded. In past meetings, Puerto Rico won 3, Antigua and Barbuda won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Nov 18, 2023 ended 2:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.94 for Puerto Rico and 0.88 for Antigua and Barbuda. This points to a Puerto Rico double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

62%
Puerto Rico
15%
Draws
23%
Antigua and Barbuda
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Puerto Rico

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Puerto Rico picked up more points recently compared to Antigua and Barbuda.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.94 vs 0.88 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 65%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 79%
Over 2.5 Goals 65%
Over 3.5 Goals 39%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%
Puerto Rico Clean Sheet 25%
Antigua and Barbuda Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 71%
Second Half Goal 75%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Puerto Rico Antigua and Barbuda
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 16 6
Draws 5 5
Losses 11 19
Goals Scored 2.25 0.8
Goals Conceded 1.44 2.37
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 2.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 18, 2023 CONCACAF Nations League
Antigua and Barbuda vs Puerto Rico
2:3
Sep 12, 2023 CONCACAF Nations League
Puerto Rico vs Antigua and Barbuda
5:0
Oct 8, 2016 Caribbean Cup
Antigua and Barbuda vs Puerto Rico
2:0
Jun 4, 2016 Caribbean Cup
Puerto Rico vs Antigua and Barbuda
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Puerto Rico Compare

Top Goalscorer Diaz G.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Rivera R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Antigua and Barbuda Compare

Avg xG / game 0.23
Avg xA / game 0.14

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Puerto Rico 61 / 100
Antigua and Barbuda 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Puerto Rico Antigua and Barbuda

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Puerto Rico Win (1)
Secondary Pick Puerto Rico & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +14.7%
1.85
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.9%
1.69
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Puerto Rico attacking → ← attacking Antigua and Barbuda

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Puerto Rico scored in 72% of their last 32 games.

Antigua and Barbuda let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.75 goals.

Puerto Rico went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Antigua and Barbuda lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

53 Points in last 5 23
1.50 Goals expected (xG) 0.25
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.38

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Guadeloupe650116:315
2Saint Lucia631210:610
3Sint Maarten62046:156
4Saint Kitts and Nevis61144:124
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Nicaragua651017:116
2Dominican Republic631214:610
3Montserrat63039:149
4Barbados60067:260
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1French Guiana631210:610
2Saint Vincent and the Grenadines630313:149
3Bermuda62228:98
4Belize62135:77
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Guyana550020:515
2Puerto Rico640222:1012
3Antigua and Barbuda61149:224
4Bahamas50147:211