Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Qarabag Agdam vs Sabah Baku

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Premier League 2025/2026 Tofiq Bahramov Stadium, Baku
Our Tip

Match Events

11'
Matheus Silva
20'
Solvet S.
29'
Simic V.

AI Match Summary

Sabah Baku in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sabah Baku.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Qarabag Agdam
39%
Draws
31%
Sabah Baku
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Sabah Baku lately — more wins on the board than Qarabag Agdam.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Qarabag Agdam Clean Sheet 16%
Sabah Baku Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Qarabag Agdam Sabah Baku
Matches Played 34 34
Wins 19 24
Draws 5 7
Losses 10 3
Goals Scored 2.13 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 22, 2026 Azerbaijan Cup
Sabah Baku vs Qarabag Agdam
2:1
Apr 18, 2026 Premier League
Qarabag Agdam vs Sabah Baku
0:1
Apr 3, 2026 Azerbaijan Cup
Qarabag Agdam vs Sabah Baku
2:2
Mar 1, 2026 Premier League
Qarabag Agdam vs Sabah Baku
3:3
Dec 18, 2025 Premier League
Sabah Baku vs Qarabag Agdam
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Qarabag Agdam Compare

Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Sabah Baku Compare

Top Goalscorer Khaybulaev A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Qarabag Agdam 30 / 100
Sabah Baku 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Qarabag Agdam Sabah Baku

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick QAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Qarabag Agdam found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (34 games).

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Defensive concern: Sabah Baku conceded in 62% of 34 recent games.

Recent resilience: Qarabag Agdam stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Qarabag Agdam VS Sabah Baku
2.13 Goals Scored 1.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Qarabag Agdam

(Home)
16 Jul
Vestri
0 : 3
Qarabag Agdam
09 Jul
Qarabag Agdam
3 : 0
Vestri
01 Jul
Ferencvaros
1 : 0
Qarabag Agdam
01 Jul
Qarabag Agdam
2 : 6
FC Kharkiv
27 Jun
Tirol
0 : 4
Qarabag Agdam
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Sabah Baku

(Away)
14 Jul
TNS
1 : 2
Sabah Baku
07 Jul
Sabah Baku
2 : 0
TNS
02 Jul
Polissya Zhytomyr
4 : 1
Sabah Baku
28 Jun
Ferencvaros
1 : 1
Sabah Baku
24 Jun
Univ. Craiova
1 : 1
Sabah Baku
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Sabah Baku33246375:2578
2Qarabag Agdam33216671:2769
3Turan33178844:2759
4Neftci Baku331611657:3259
5Zira FK331314643:3653
6Araz PFK331371344:5846
7SumQayit FK331251645:4941
8Shamakhi339111331:4038
9Imisli FK337131323:4334
10Kapaz33832225:6127
11Gabala33762032:4927
12Karvan33362423:6615
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - I Liqa 2026/2027 (Main)
Relegation - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)