Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Qarabag Agdam vs Turan

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Premier League 2025/2026 Tofiq Bahramov Stadium, Baku
Our Tip

Match Events

11'
Sub
Qurbanly M. In: Zoubir A.
Out: Qurbanly M.
18'
Sadykhov R.
37'
Jo Batista

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Qarabag Agdam and Turan finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Qarabag Agdam.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Qarabag Agdam
28%
Draws
22%
Turan
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Qarabag Agdam

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Qarabag Agdam carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Qarabag Agdam a 50% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Qarabag Agdam have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 87%
Over 1.5 Goals 77.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Qarabag Agdam Clean Sheet 68%
Turan Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Qarabag Agdam Turan
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 16 14
Draws 6 9
Losses 10 7
Goals Scored 2.13 1
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.33
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.33

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 4, 2026 Premier League
Qarabag Agdam vs Turan
2:1
Feb 1, 2026 Premier League
Qarabag Agdam vs Turan
1:0
Oct 17, 2025 Premier League
Turan vs Qarabag Agdam
1:2
Mar 28, 2025 Premier League
Turan vs Qarabag Agdam
1:4
Jan 26, 2025 Premier League
Qarabag Agdam vs Turan
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Qarabag Agdam Compare

Top Goalscorer Leandro Andrade
1 Goals
Assists Leader Matheus Silva
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Turan Compare

Top Goalscorer Guseynov A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Qarabag Agdam 59 / 100
Turan 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Qarabag Agdam Turan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick QAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Qarabag Agdam found the back of the net in 78% of recent matches (32 games).

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Qarabag Agdam has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Difficult form: Turan registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Qarabag Agdam VS Turan
2.13 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.33
88% Over 1.5 67%
75% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 17%

Recent Form & Match History

Qarabag Agdam

(Home)
23 Jul
Qarabag Agdam
0 : 0
CSKA Sofia
16 Jul
Vestri
0 : 3
Qarabag Agdam
09 Jul
Qarabag Agdam
3 : 0
Vestri
01 Jul
Ferencvaros
1 : 0
Qarabag Agdam
01 Jul
Qarabag Agdam
2 : 6
FC Kharkiv
Page 1 of 7

Turan

(Away)
22 May
Turan
1 : 2
Sabah Baku
16 May
Shamakhi
3 : 2
Turan
10 May
Turan
1 : 0
Karvan
04 May
Qarabag Agdam
2 : 1
Turan
27 Apr
Turan
1 : 1
Zira FK
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Sabah Baku33246375:2578
2Qarabag Agdam33216671:2769
3Turan33178844:2759
4Neftci Baku331611657:3259
5Zira FK331314643:3653
6Araz PFK331371344:5846
7SumQayit FK331251645:4941
8Shamakhi339111331:4038
9Imisli FK337131323:4334
10Kapaz33832225:6127
11Gabala33762032:4927
12Karvan33362423:6615
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - I Liqa 2026/2027 (Main)
Relegation - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)