Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Qarabag Agdam vs Turan

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Premier League 2025/2026 Tofiq Bahramov Stadium, Baku
Our Tip

Match Events

11'
Sub
Qurbanly M. In: Zoubir A.
Out: Qurbanly M.
18'
Sadykhov R.
37'
Jo Batista

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Qarabag Agdam and Turan finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Qarabag Agdam.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Qarabag Agdam
30%
Draws
31%
Turan
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Qarabag Agdam

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Qarabag Agdam carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Qarabag Agdam have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 15%
Over 4.5 Goals 7%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Qarabag Agdam Clean Sheet 20%
Turan Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Qarabag Agdam Turan
Matches Played 34 31
Wins 18 16
Draws 6 8
Losses 10 7
Goals Scored 1.76 1.39
Goals Conceded 1.03 0.77
Expected Goals (xG) 1.08 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 4, 2026 Premier League
Qarabag Agdam vs Turan
2:1
Feb 1, 2026 Premier League
Qarabag Agdam vs Turan
1:0
Oct 17, 2025 Premier League
Turan vs Qarabag Agdam
1:2
Mar 28, 2025 Premier League
Turan vs Qarabag Agdam
1:4
Jan 26, 2025 Premier League
Qarabag Agdam vs Turan
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Qarabag Agdam Compare

Top Goalscorer Leandro Andrade
1 Goals
Assists Leader Matheus Silva
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.83
Avg xA / game 0.54

Turan Compare

Top Goalscorer Guseynov A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Qarabag Agdam 32 / 100
Turan 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Qarabag Agdam Turan

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Qarabag Agdam found the back of the net in 74% of recent matches (34 games).

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Qarabag Agdam has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Turan has conceded goals in 48% of their last 31 outings.

Scoring Trends

Qarabag Agdam VS Turan
1.5 Goals Scored 1
0.38 Goals Conceded 0.67
50% Over 1.5 33%
38% Over 2.5 33%
13% Over 3.5 17%

Recent Form & Match History

Qarabag Agdam

(Home)
18 Sept
Qarabag Agdam
1 : 0
Safa Baku
13 Sept
Zira FK
1 : 1
Qarabag Agdam
06 Sept
Qarabag Agdam
3 : 2
Araz PFK
31 Aug
SumQayit FK
0 : 1
Qarabag Agdam
27 Aug
Qarabag Agdam
1 : 4
Twente
Page 1 of 7

Turan

(Away)
19 Sept
Turan
1 : 0
Zira FK
13 Sept
Araz PFK
2 : 2
Turan
06 Sept
Turan
2 : 1
SumQayit FK
30 Aug
Kapaz
1 : 0
Turan
23 Aug
Turan
0 : 0
Shamakhi
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sabah Baku 33 24 6 3 75:25 78
2 Qarabag Agdam 33 21 6 6 71:27 69
3 Turan 33 17 8 8 44:27 59
4 Neftci Baku 33 16 11 6 57:32 59
5 Zira FK 33 13 14 6 43:36 53
6 Araz PFK 33 13 7 13 44:58 46
7 SumQayit FK 33 12 5 16 45:49 41
8 Shamakhi 33 9 11 13 31:40 38
9 Imisli FK 33 7 13 13 23:43 34
10 Kapaz 33 8 3 22 25:61 27
11 Gabala 33 7 6 20 32:49 27
12 Karvan 33 3 6 24 23:66 15
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - I Liqa (Main)
Relegation - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)