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Qatar vs Bahrain

Asia Asia

Arabian Gulf Cup Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Jeddah
Qatar Logo

Qatar

Thu, Sep 24, 2026
VS
06:00 PM
Bahrain Logo

Bahrain

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 1-2. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Recent numbers: Qatar at 0.96 goals for, 1.88 against; Bahrain at 0.93 for, 1.57 against. Head-to-head, Qatar have won 1 to Bahrain's 2, with 2 draws. They last met on Sep 3, 2025, ending 2:2. Model xG sits at 0.75 vs 0.75, favoring Bahrain. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Qatar
20%
Draws
60%
Bahrain
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Bahrain

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

60% / High Confidence
  • Bahrain carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Bahrain are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Bahrain arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Bahrain, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Qatar Clean Sheet 20%
Bahrain Clean Sheet 19%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Qatar Bahrain
Matches Played 26 30
Wins 5 8
Draws 7 6
Losses 14 16
Goals Scored 0.96 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.88 1.57
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 3, 2025 Friendly International
Qatar vs Bahrain
2:2
Jan 10, 2023 Arabian Gulf Cup
Qatar vs Bahrain
1:2
Nov 30, 2021 FIFA Arab Cup
Qatar vs Bahrain
1:0
Dec 29, 2017 Arabian Gulf Cup
Qatar vs Bahrain
1:1
Jan 19, 2015 Asian Cup
Qatar vs Bahrain
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Qatar 28 / 100
Bahrain 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Qatar Bahrain

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bahrain Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Bahrain conceded in 80% of 30 recent games.

Qatar found the back of the net in 62% of recent matches (26 games).

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Away concern: Bahrain has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Qatar VS Bahrain
0.13 Goals Scored 0.75
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
25% Over 1.5 50%
13% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Qatar

(Home)
24 Jun
Bosnia & Herzegovina
3 : 1
Qatar
18 Jun
Canada
6 : 0
Qatar
13 Jun
Qatar
1 : 1
Switzerland
06 Jun
Qatar
0 : 0
El Salvador
28 May
Ireland
1 : 0
Qatar
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Bahrain

(Away)
05 Jun
Georgia
2 : 0
Bahrain
09 Dec
Bahrain
3 : 1
Sudan
06 Dec
Bahrain
1 : 5
Algeria
03 Dec
Iraq
2 : 1
Bahrain
26 Nov
Bahrain
1 : 0
Djibouti
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Saudi Arabia 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Oman 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Iraq 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Kuwait 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Arabian Gulf Cup (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 United Arab Emirates 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
2 Bahrain 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
3 Qatar 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
4 Yemen 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Arabian Gulf Cup (Play Offs)