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Qizilqum vs Shortan Guzor

Uzbekistan Uzbekistan

Super League 2025 Yoshlar Sport Majmuasi
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AI Match Summary

Qizilqum play Shortan Guzor in the Super League 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Qizilqum averaged 0.93 goals scored and 1.34 conceded. Shortan Guzor averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.63 conceded. In past meetings, Qizilqum won 3, Shortan Guzor won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on Nov 29, 2025 ended 3:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.88 for Qizilqum and 1.63 for Shortan Guzor. This points to a Qizilqum double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Qizilqum
29%
Draws
31%
Shortan Guzor
Draw rate projection: 29% Favored: Qizilqum

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Qizilqum picked up more points recently compared to Shortan Guzor.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.88 vs 1.63 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 50%
Over 3.5 Goals 30%
Over 4.5 Goals 15%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%
Qizilqum Clean Sheet 14%
Shortan Guzor Clean Sheet 17%
First Half Goal 68%
Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Qizilqum Shortan Guzor
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 10
Draws 7 7
Losses 12 13
Goals Scored 0.93 1.4
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 29, 2025 Super League
Qizilqum vs Shortan Guzor
3:3
Jul 3, 2025 Super League
Shortan Guzor vs Qizilqum
1:2
Aug 18, 2021 Uzbekistan Cup
Shortan Guzor vs Qizilqum
1:2
Nov 25, 2017 Super League
Shortan Guzor vs Qizilqum
1:1
Jun 25, 2017 Super League
Qizilqum vs Shortan Guzor
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Qizilqum Compare

Top Goalscorer Kenzhaboev I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Rakhmatullaev S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Shortan Guzor Compare

Top Goalscorer Asomiddinov D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pirmukhamedov A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Qizilqum 39 / 100
Shortan Guzor 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Qizilqum Shortan Guzor

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Qizilqum or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +25.2%
3.13
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +13.5%
2.27
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Qizilqum attacking → ← attacking Shortan Guzor

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Qizilqum scored in 59% of their last 29 games.

Shortan Guzor let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Qizilqum went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Shortan Guzor lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

37 Points in last 5 37
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.75
1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Neftchi Fargona30197449:2464
2Pakhtakor30186659:2360
3Nasaf Qarshi301611351:2359
4Din. Samarkand301610447:3058
5Bunyodkor301310748:4049
6OKMK301461044:3448
7Navbahor Namangan3010101041:3740
8Sogdiana301071337:3737
9Qizilqum30991228:4436
10Termez Surkhon30981326:3035
11Andijan30981339:5135
12Kokand 191230971424:3934
13Mashal Muborak30861622:4830
14Buxoro30691530:4927
15Xorazm Urganch30761733:3927
16Shortan Guzor30381927:5717