Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Queensland Lions vs Perth Glory

Australia Australia

Australia Cup Lions Stadium, Brisbane
Queensland Lions Logo

Queensland Lions

Tue, Jul 21, 2026
2 - 1
09:30 AM
Perth Glory Logo

Perth Glory

Our Tip

Match Events

12'
Sub
Fiechtner A. In: Ponting B.
Out: Fiechtner A.
24'
North Z.
38'
Didulica A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. The second leg ended 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Queensland Lions
20%
Draws
32%
Perth Glory
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Queensland Lions

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Queensland Lions carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 48% — that's where the model lands on Queensland Lions taking it.
  • Queensland Lions have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Perth Glory, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Queensland Lions Clean Sheet 20%
Perth Glory Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Queensland Lions Perth Glory
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 24 9
Draws 2 7
Losses 4 12
Goals Scored 2.53 1.29
Goals Conceded 0.93 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.83 0.73
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 21, 2026 Australia Cup
Queensland Lions vs Perth Glory
2:1
Aug 26, 2015 Australia Cup
Queensland Lions vs Perth Glory
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Queensland Lions Compare

Top Goalscorer Lagos J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.41
Avg xA / game 0.92

Perth Glory Compare

Top Goalscorer Lebib A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.66
Avg xA / game 0.41

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Queensland Lions 85 / 100
Perth Glory 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Queensland Lions Perth Glory

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Queensland Lions Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Queensland Lions scored in 100% of their last 30 games.

Perth Glory has conceded goals in 86% of their last 28 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Queensland Lions went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Queensland Lions VS Perth Glory
3 Goals Scored 0.33
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.67
88% Over 1.5 33%
75% Over 2.5 33%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Queensland Lions

(Home)
15 Sept
South Melbourne
3 : 1
Queensland Lions
12 Sept
Queensland Lions
1 : 0
Peninsula
30 Aug
Queensland Lions
4 : 1
Peninsula
25 Aug
Queensland Lions
4 : 0
North Sunshine Eagles
14 Aug
Moreton City Excelsior
0 : 2
Queensland Lions
Page 1 of 6

Perth Glory

(Away)
21 Jul
Queensland Lions
2 : 1
Perth Glory
25 Apr
Perth Glory
2 : 1
Brisbane Roar
18 Apr
Sydney FC
0 : 0
Perth Glory
12 Apr
Perth Glory
3 : 1
Macarthur FC
04 Apr
Central Coast
2 : 2
Perth Glory
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Sydney Olympic 0
Brisbane Roar 3
Bayswater 1
Sydney FC 5
Rochedale 1
SD Raiders 2
Azzurri United 0
Macarthur FC 3
APIA Leichhardt 2
Peninsula 1
Sydney Utd 2
Central Coast 1
Tigers FC 0
Western Sydney Wanderers 2
Kingborough Lions 0
Melbourne Victory 4
Marlin Coast 0
Brunswick Juventus 4
Preston Lions 3
Newcastle Jets 2
South Melbourne 2
Adelaide Utd 1
Maitland 1
Fremantle City 2
Weston Workers Bears 0
Melbourne City 3
Queensland Lions 2
Perth Glory 1
FK Beograd 2
North Sunshine Eagles 3
Cumberland United 0
Heidelberg Utd 3
1/8-finals
Brisbane Roar 2
Sydney FC 4
SD Raiders 2
Macarthur FC 1
APIA Leichhardt 2
Sydney Utd 1
Western Sydney Wanderers 1
Melbourne Victory 2
Brunswick Juventus 1
Preston Lions 4
South Melbourne 4
Fremantle City 3
Melbourne City 0
Queensland Lions 2
North Sunshine Eagles 1
Heidelberg Utd 0
Quarter-finals
Sydney FC 1
SD Raiders 0
APIA Leichhardt 0
Melbourne Victory 1
Preston Lions 1
South Melbourne 2
Queensland Lions 4
North Sunshine Eagles 0
Semi-finals
Sydney FC 0
Melbourne Victory 2
South Melbourne 3
Queensland Lions 1
Final
Melbourne Victory -
South Melbourne -