Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Quilmes vs Atl. Rafaela

Argentina Argentina

Primera Nacional Estadio Centenario Ciudad de Quilmes, Quilmes
Quilmes Logo

Quilmes

2 - 0
FT
Atl. Rafaela Logo

Atl. Rafaela

Our Tip

Match Events

41' Event
Vera U.
Assist: Lavezzi A.
60'
Ramirez R.
63'
Sub
Cainelli N. In: Albertengo L.
Out: Cainelli N.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Primera Nacional game between Quilmes and Atl. Rafaela finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Quilmes.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Quilmes
30%
Draws
41%
Atl. Rafaela
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Atl. Rafaela

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

29% / Low Confidence
  • Atl. Rafaela carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 29% — that's where the model lands on Quilmes taking it.
  • Regular Primera Nacional form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.8%
Quilmes Clean Sheet 68%
Atl. Rafaela Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Quilmes Atl. Rafaela
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 7 13
Draws 11 7
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 0.86 0.83
Goals Conceded 0.83 0.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 31, 2026 Primera Nacional
Quilmes vs Atl. Rafaela
2:0
Jul 29, 2023 Primera Nacional
Quilmes vs Atl. Rafaela
1:2
Mar 26, 2023 Primera Nacional
Atl. Rafaela vs Quilmes
1:0
May 7, 2022 Primera Nacional
Atl. Rafaela vs Quilmes
1:2
Jan 24, 2021 Primera Nacional
Atl. Rafaela vs Quilmes
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Quilmes Compare

Top Goalscorer Vera U.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Spetale A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Atl. Rafaela Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Quilmes 50 / 100
Atl. Rafaela 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Quilmes Atl. Rafaela

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Quilmes Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Quilmes stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Quilmes scored in 45% of their last 29 outings.

Defensive concern: Atl. Rafaela conceded in 48% of 29 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Quilmes VS Atl. Rafaela
1.13 Goals Scored 0.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
50% Over 1.5 38%
38% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Quilmes

(Home)
09 Aug
Quilmes
1 : 1
Almagro
05 Aug
Quilmes
2 : 0
Gimnasia Jujuy
01 Aug
Patronato
3 : 3
Quilmes
26 Jul
Quilmes
0 : 1
Colegiales
12 Jul
Midland
1 : 0
Quilmes
Page 1 of 6

Atl. Rafaela

(Away)
08 Aug
Atl. Rafaela
1 : 0
Chacarita Juniors
01 Aug
San Martin S.J.
1 : 1
Atl. Rafaela
25 Jul
Atl. Rafaela
1 : 0
Nueva Chicago
17 Jul
Temperley
2 : 0
Atl. Rafaela
11 Jul
Atl. Rafaela
1 : 3
Deportivo Maipu
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ferro 24 14 4 6 28:22 46
2 Deportivo Moron 23 12 5 6 37:22 41
3 Colon Santa Fe 24 10 9 5 29:19 39
4 Almirante Brown 24 10 8 6 19:13 38
5 Godoy Cruz 23 10 7 6 27:20 37
6 Deportivo Madryn 23 9 9 5 30:22 36
7 Ciudad Bolivar 24 8 10 6 21:21 34
8 Los Andes 23 8 9 6 20:11 33
9 CA Estudiantes 24 8 8 8 20:20 32
10 Racing Cordoba 24 8 6 10 23:28 30
11 CA Mitre 24 6 10 8 24:28 28
12 San Miguel 23 5 11 7 17:23 26
13 Defensores de Belgrano 23 5 10 8 16:21 25
14 All Boys 24 4 12 8 14:23 24
15 San Telmo 23 5 8 10 18:24 23
16 Central Norte 23 5 8 10 15:24 23
17 Chaco For Ever 23 5 7 11 21:28 22
18 Acassuso 24 5 7 12 18:29 22
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tristan Suarez 23 11 9 3 23:12 42
2 Gimnasia Jujuy 24 12 5 7 35:29 41
3 Atletico Atlanta 23 12 3 8 29:22 39
4 Midland 24 10 8 6 26:17 38
5 Gimnasia y Tiro 24 10 7 7 26:22 37
6 Temperley 24 9 10 5 24:21 37
7 Atl. Rafaela 24 9 7 8 18:19 34
8 Deportivo Maipu 24 9 5 10 31:26 32
9 San Martin T. 24 7 10 7 22:20 31
10 Colegiales 23 8 6 9 23:23 30
11 Almagro 24 8 6 10 21:27 30
12 Quilmes 24 7 8 9 24:21 29
13 Nueva Chicago 23 7 8 8 20:22 29
14 San Martin S.J. 22 7 7 8 23:23 28
15 Chacarita Juniors 23 7 5 11 18:24 26
16 Agropecuario 24 6 8 10 21:28 26
17 Patronato 23 4 12 7 18:23 24
18 Club Atletico Guemes 23 5 4 14 20:42 19
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)