Sport Picks

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Quilmes vs San Telmo

Argentina Argentina

Primera Nacional Estadio Centenario Ciudad de Quilmes, Quilmes
Sat, Aug 15, 2026
VS
10:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Quilmes host San Telmo in the Primera Nacional. This one's hard to separate. San Telmo have shipped 1.17 goals a game lately, while Quilmes have conceded 0.83 and scored 0.86. Head-to-head, Quilmes have won 1 to San Telmo's 1, with 0 draws. They last met on Mar 29, 2026, ending 0:3. Model xG sits at 1.06 vs 0.94, favoring Quilmes. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Quilmes
20%
Draws
30%
San Telmo
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Quilmes

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Quilmes average 0.86 goals a game right now, well clear of San Telmo's 0.83.
  • Win probability leans Quilmes's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular Primera Nacional form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.8%
Quilmes Clean Sheet 68%
San Telmo Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Quilmes San Telmo
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 7 7
Draws 11 8
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 0.86 0.83
Goals Conceded 0.83 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 29, 2026 Primera Nacional
San Telmo vs Quilmes
0:3
Jun 19, 2022 Primera Nacional
San Telmo vs Quilmes
3:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Quilmes 68 / 100
San Telmo 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Quilmes San Telmo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick QUI Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Defensive concern: San Telmo conceded in 69% of 29 recent games.

Solid form: Quilmes remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

San Telmo lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Quilmes VS San Telmo
1.13 Goals Scored 0.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Quilmes

(Home)
09 Aug
Quilmes
1 : 1
Almagro
05 Aug
Quilmes
2 : 0
Gimnasia Jujuy
01 Aug
Patronato
3 : 3
Quilmes
26 Jul
Quilmes
0 : 1
Colegiales
12 Jul
Midland
1 : 0
Quilmes
Page 1 of 6

San Telmo

(Away)
09 Aug
Colon Santa Fe
1 : 0
San Telmo
02 Aug
San Telmo
1 : 0
San Miguel
26 Jul
Racing Cordoba
2 : 1
San Telmo
11 Jul
San Telmo
1 : 3
Chaco For Ever
05 Jul
Ferro
2 : 1
San Telmo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ferro 24 14 4 6 28:22 46
2 Deportivo Moron 23 12 5 6 37:22 41
3 Colon Santa Fe 24 10 9 5 29:19 39
4 Almirante Brown 24 10 8 6 19:13 38
5 Godoy Cruz 23 10 7 6 27:20 37
6 Deportivo Madryn 23 9 9 5 30:22 36
7 Ciudad Bolivar 24 8 10 6 21:21 34
8 Los Andes 23 8 9 6 20:11 33
9 CA Estudiantes 24 8 8 8 20:20 32
10 Racing Cordoba 24 8 6 10 23:28 30
11 CA Mitre 24 6 10 8 24:28 28
12 San Miguel 23 5 11 7 17:23 26
13 Defensores de Belgrano 23 5 10 8 16:21 25
14 San Telmo 23 5 8 10 18:24 23
15 All Boys 23 4 11 8 13:22 23
16 Chaco For Ever 23 5 7 11 21:28 22
17 Central Norte 22 5 7 10 14:23 22
18 Acassuso 23 5 6 12 17:28 21
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gimnasia Jujuy 23 12 5 6 35:27 41
2 Tristan Suarez 22 10 9 3 21:12 39
3 Atletico Atlanta 23 12 3 8 29:22 39
4 Midland 23 10 7 6 25:16 37
5 Gimnasia y Tiro 24 10 7 7 26:22 37
6 Temperley 24 9 10 5 24:21 37
7 Atl. Rafaela 24 9 7 8 18:19 34
8 Deportivo Maipu 24 9 5 10 31:26 32
9 San Martin T. 24 7 10 7 22:20 31
10 Colegiales 23 8 6 9 23:23 30
11 Almagro 24 8 6 10 21:27 30
12 Quilmes 24 7 8 9 24:21 29
13 Nueva Chicago 23 7 8 8 20:22 29
14 San Martin S.J. 22 7 7 8 23:23 28
15 Chacarita Juniors 23 7 5 11 18:24 26
16 Agropecuario 24 6 8 10 21:28 26
17 Patronato 23 4 12 7 18:23 24
18 Club Atletico Guemes 23 5 4 14 20:42 19
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Super final)
Promotion - Primera Nacional (Promotion - Play Offs)