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Racing Montevideo vs Club Nacional - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Osvaldo Roberto, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

28'
Rogel A.
43'
Oyarzo Y.
45'
Chambian C.

AI Match Summary

The Liga AUF Uruguaya game between Racing Montevideo and Club Nacional finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Racing Montevideo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

19%
Racing Montevideo
20%
Draws
61%
Club Nacional
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Club Nacional

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Club Nacional carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Club Nacional are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Racing Montevideo Clean Sheet 13%
Club Nacional Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Racing Montevideo Club Nacional
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 10 14
Draws 10 5
Losses 7 9
Goals Scored 1 1.32
Goals Conceded 1 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Racing Montevideo vs Club Nacional
2:0
Feb 14, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Club Nacional vs Racing Montevideo
1:1
Sep 7, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Club Nacional vs Racing Montevideo
3:0
Jun 14, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Racing Montevideo vs Club Nacional
1:2
Mar 16, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Racing Montevideo vs Club Nacional
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Racing Montevideo Compare

Top Goalscorer Alvarez F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Club Nacional Compare

Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Racing Montevideo 10 / 100
Club Nacional 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Racing Montevideo Club Nacional

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Club Nacional Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Racing Montevideo scored in 67% of their last 27 outings.

Club Nacional let in goals in 61% of their last 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Racing Montevideo has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Racing Montevideo VS Club Nacional
1.13 Goals Scored 1.75
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Racing Montevideo

(Home)
04 Oct
Racing Montevideo
0 : 1
Penarol
26 Sept
Progreso
2 : 1
Racing Montevideo
20 Sept
Liverpool M.
0 : 0
Racing Montevideo
17 Sept
Juventud
3 : 0
Racing Montevideo
12 Sept
Racing Montevideo
3 : 2
Boston River
Page 1 of 6

Club Nacional

(Away)
05 Oct
Club Nacional
2 : 0
Montevideo City
26 Sept
Cerro Largo
0 : 2
Club Nacional
20 Sept
Club Nacional
3 : 2
Defensor Sp.
16 Sept
Progreso
0 : 1
Club Nacional
12 Sept
Wanderers
1 : 1
Club Nacional
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Montevideo City 10 7 1 2 20:10 22
2 Liverpool M. 10 6 3 1 18:8 21
3 Penarol 10 6 3 1 16:7 20
4 Maldonado 10 5 3 2 14:6 18
5 Club Nacional 9 5 2 2 13:9 17
6 CA Cerro 10 5 2 3 12:13 17
7 Wanderers 10 4 3 3 13:14 15
8 Juventud 9 3 5 1 10:6 14
9 Progreso 10 4 1 5 10:13 13
10 Racing Montevideo 9 3 3 3 9:8 12
11 Boston River 10 3 3 4 13:13 12
12 Defensor Sp. 10 2 2 6 11:19 8
13 Danubio 10 1 4 5 4:11 7
14 Cerro Largo 9 0 5 4 6:12 5
15 Central Esp. 9 1 2 6 5:16 5
16 Albion 9 1 0 8 9:18 3
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)