Sport Picks
Match Events
41'
41'
Touati B.
47'
47'
Jertila M.
51'
51'
Touati B.
AI Match Summary
AS Marsa in this Ligue 2 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored AS Marsa.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
20%
40%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
40%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to AS Marsa lately — more wins on the board than Rades.
- Win probability leans AS Marsa's way, sitting at 40%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- These two have met 5 times recently and AS Marsa have taken 4 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Rades Clean Sheet 10%
AS Marsa Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Rades | AS Marsa |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 32 |
| Wins | 2 | 14 |
| Draws | 10 | 3 |
| Losses | 18 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 0.6 | 1.19 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.9 | 1.09 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.35 | 1.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
May 4, 2025 Ligue 2
AS Marsa vs Rades
3:0
Dec 20, 2024 Ligue 2
Rades vs AS Marsa
1:3
Mar 26, 2023 Ligue 2
Rades vs AS Marsa
1:3
Jan 15, 2023 Tunisia Cup
AS Marsa vs Rades
1:2
Nov 12, 2022 Ligue 2
AS Marsa vs Rades
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Rades Compare
Avg xG / game 1.04
Avg xA / game 0.68
AS Marsa Compare
Top Goalscorer Touati B.
2 Goals Assists Leader Jertila M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Rades 26 / 100
AS Marsa 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Rades AS Marsa
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick AS Marsa Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.
AS Marsa let in goals in 66% of their last 32 matches.
Recent resilience: Rades stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Rades's goal record stands at 50% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Scoring Trends
Rades VS AS Marsa
0 Goals Scored 0.75
3 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 50%
100% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Rades
(Home) 08 Feb
BS Bouhajla
3 : 0 Rades
24 May
Rades
1 : 1 Moknine
17 May
Hamam-Sousse
0 : 1 Rades
10 May
Rades
1 : 0 Menzel Bourguiba
04 May
AS Marsa
3 : 0 Rades
Page 1 of 6
24 May
Rades
1 : 1 Moknine
10 May
Rades
1 : 0 Menzel Bourguiba
26 Apr
Rades
0 : 1 Oued Ellil
19 Apr
Rades
1 : 8 Megrine
05 Apr
Rades
0 : 2 Kerkennah
Page 1 of 3
AS Marsa
(Away) 12 Sept
AS Marsa
1 : 0 Etoile Sahel
06 Sept
Esperance Tunis
2 : 1 AS Marsa
29 Aug
AS Marsa
0 : 0 PS Sakiet Eddaier
23 Aug
CA Bizertin
1 : 0 AS Marsa
08 Aug
Esperance Tunis
1 : 2 AS Marsa
Page 1 of 7
06 Sept
Esperance Tunis
2 : 1 AS Marsa
23 Aug
CA Bizertin
1 : 0 AS Marsa
08 Aug
Esperance Tunis
1 : 2 AS Marsa
12 May
Jeunesse Sportive
2 : 2 AS Marsa
04 May
CA Bizertin
1 : 2 AS Marsa
Page 1 of 4
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AS Marsa | 26 | 15 | 8 | 3 | 40:17 | 53 |
| 2 | Megrine | 26 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 49:23 | 52 |
| 3 | Jendouba Sport | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 38:19 | 49 |
| 4 | Hamam-Sousse | 26 | 8 | 12 | 6 | 36:28 | 36 |
| 5 | Korba | 26 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 22:28 | 36 |
| 6 | Hammam-Lif | 26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 25:26 | 34 |
| 7 | Msaken | 26 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 18:17 | 33 |
| 8 | Ariana | 26 | 10 | 3 | 13 | 33:33 | 33 |
| 9 | Kalaa | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 30:34 | 31 |
| 10 | EM Mahdia | 26 | 9 | 4 | 13 | 26:37 | 31 |
| 11 | Moknine | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 27:30 | 30 |
| 12 | Menzel Bourguiba | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 18:27 | 30 |
| 13 | Oued Ellil | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 23:32 | 27 |
| 14 | Rades | 26 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 16:50 | 14 |
Promotion - Ligue Professionnelle 1 2025/2026 (Main)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JS Kairouan | 26 | 15 | 9 | 2 | 30:11 | 54 |
| 2 | Kasserine | 26 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 36:17 | 53 |
| 3 | Kerkennah | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 36:21 | 44 |
| 4 | Sfax Railways | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 35:22 | 44 |
| 5 | PS Sakiet Eddaier | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 32:23 | 44 |
| 6 | BS Bouhajla | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 21:22 | 33 |
| 7 | Redeyef | 26 | 10 | 3 | 13 | 23:25 | 33 |
| 8 | Djelma | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 26:26 | 32 |
| 9 | Sidi Bouzid | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 27:28 | 32 |
| 10 | Chebba | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 24:29 | 32 |
| 11 | Stade Gabesien | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | 13:23 | 30 |
| 12 | AS Agareb | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 23:35 | 30 |
| 13 | ES Jerba | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 15:24 | 26 |
| 14 | Espoir Rogba | 26 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 19:54 | 13 |
Promotion - Ligue Professionnelle 1 2025/2026 (Main)
