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Rakow Czestochowa vs Fiorentina

Europe Europe

Conference League 2025/2026 ArcelorMittal Park
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Rakow Czestochowa play Fiorentina in the Conference League 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Rakow Czestochowa averaged 1.77 goals scored and 1.35 conceded. Fiorentina averaged 1.24 goals scored and 1.24 conceded. In past meetings, Rakow Czestochowa won 0, Fiorentina won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 19, 2026 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.43 for Rakow Czestochowa and 0.72 for Fiorentina. This points to a Fiorentina double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Rakow Czestochowa
27%
Draws
39%
Fiorentina
Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: Fiorentina

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Rakow Czestochowa picked up more points recently compared to Fiorentina.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.43 vs 0.72 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 56%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 56%
Over 3.5 Goals 34%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63%
Rakow Czestochowa Clean Sheet 27%
Fiorentina Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 74%
Second Half Goal 78%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Rakow Czestochowa Fiorentina
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 14 12
Draws 7 9
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 1.77 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.35 1.24
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 0.57
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.86

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 19, 2026 Conference League
Rakow Czestochowa vs Fiorentina
1:2
Mar 12, 2026 Conference League
Fiorentina vs Rakow Czestochowa
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Rakow Czestochowa Compare

Top Goalscorer Struski K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Fiorentina Compare

Top Goalscorer Piccoli R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pongracic M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.52
Avg xA / game 0.32

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Rakow Czestochowa 36 / 100
Fiorentina 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Rakow Czestochowa Fiorentina

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Fiorentina or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +30.9%
3.85
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12%
2.00
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Rakow Czestochowa attacking → ← attacking Fiorentina

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Rakow Czestochowa scored in 87% of their last 31 games.

Fiorentina let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Rakow Czestochowa went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Fiorentina lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

49 Points in last 5 45
2.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.57
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.86