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Rancho Santana vs Esteli

Nicaragua Nicaragua

Liga Primera
Our Tip

Match Events

23' Event
Bonilla B.
51'
77' Event
Guarch T.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Liga Primera matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%
Rancho Santana
35%
Draws
40%
Esteli
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Esteli

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Esteli lately — more wins on the board than Rancho Santana.
  • Model gives Esteli a 40% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Rancho Santana Clean Sheet 15%
Esteli Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Rancho Santana Esteli
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 6 18
Draws 6 7
Losses 18 6
Goals Scored 1 1.74
Goals Conceded 2.07 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Liga Primera
Rancho Santana vs Esteli
1:1
Mar 9, 2026 Liga Primera
Rancho Santana vs Esteli
0:4
Feb 5, 2026 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Rancho Santana
0:1
Oct 17, 2025 Liga Primera
Esteli vs Rancho Santana
4:0
Aug 5, 2025 Liga Primera
Rancho Santana vs Esteli
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Rancho Santana Compare

Top Goalscorer Guarch T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Esteli Compare

Top Goalscorer Bonilla B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Rancho Santana 27 / 100
Esteli 39 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Rancho Santana Esteli

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Esteli Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Rancho Santana scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Esteli conceded in 61% of 31 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Recent resilience: Rancho Santana stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Rancho Santana VS Esteli
0.75 Goals Scored 1.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Rancho Santana

(Home)
06 Sept
Rancho Santana
1 : 1
Esteli
02 Sept
Jalapa
1 : 1
Rancho Santana
30 Aug
Matagalpa
0 : 1
Rancho Santana
23 Aug
Rancho Santana
1 : 2
San Marcos
15 Aug
Rancho Santana
1 : 3
Walter Ferreti
Page 1 of 6

Esteli

(Away)
11 Sept
Managua FC
1 : 1
Esteli
06 Sept
Rancho Santana
1 : 1
Esteli
03 Sept
Esteli
2 : 0
San Marcos
30 Aug
Sport Sebaco
0 : 5
Esteli
27 Aug
Marathon
3 : 0
Esteli
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Managua FC 9 7 2 0 27:9 23
2 Diriangen 9 7 2 0 20:6 23
3 Esteli 9 5 3 1 17:6 18
4 UNAN-Managua 9 5 2 2 11:7 17
5 Sport Sebaco 9 3 2 4 9:17 11
6 San Marcos 9 3 1 5 8:14 10
7 Matagalpa 9 3 0 6 4:16 9
8 Walter Ferreti 10 2 1 7 12:17 7
9 Jalapa 10 2 1 7 5:14 7
10 Rancho Santana 9 1 2 6 7:14 5
Promotion - Liga Primera (Apertura - Winners)
Promotion - Liga Primera (Apertura - Winners)