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Rapperswil-Jona vs Aarau Prediction & H2H Stats

Switzerland Switzerland

Challenge League 2025/2026 Grünfeld, Rapperswil-Jona
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Vladi S.
Assist: Filet E.
10' Event
Charveys A.
Assist: Kamberi F.
25' Event
Luthi J.
Assist: Emini L.

AI Match Summary

The Challenge League 2025/2026 game between Rapperswil-Jona and Aarau finished 4-5, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Aarau.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Rapperswil-Jona
30%
Draws
29%
Aarau
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Rapperswil-Jona

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Aarau have managed 1.93 goals a game lately — Rapperswil-Jona are scoring more at 2.
  • Model gives Rapperswil-Jona a 41% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Challenge League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Aarau have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 41.6%
Rapperswil-Jona Clean Sheet 68%
Aarau Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Rapperswil-Jona Aarau
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 13 13
Draws 3 7
Losses 13 8
Goals Scored 2 1.93
Goals Conceded 1.79 1.68
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 4, 2026 Challenge League
Aarau vs Rapperswil-Jona
3:2
Apr 4, 2026 Challenge League
Rapperswil-Jona vs Aarau
4:5
Feb 27, 2026 Challenge League
Aarau vs Rapperswil-Jona
5:3
Nov 1, 2025 Challenge League
Aarau vs Rapperswil-Jona
2:1
Aug 29, 2025 Challenge League
Rapperswil-Jona vs Aarau
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Rapperswil-Jona Compare

Top Goalscorer Luthi J.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Charveys A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Aarau Compare

Top Goalscorer Vladi S.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Filet E.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Rapperswil-Jona 86 / 100
Aarau 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Rapperswil-Jona Aarau

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Rapperswil-Jona Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 4:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Rapperswil-Jona's goal record stands at 86% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Aarau let in goals in 82% of their last 28 matches.

H2H data points to 5.20 goals as a typical output.

Rapperswil-Jona went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Rapperswil-Jona VS Aarau
1.88 Goals Scored 2.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.75
100% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Rapperswil-Jona

(Home)
18 Sept
Xamax
0 : 3
Rapperswil-Jona
11 Sept
Rapperswil-Jona
2 : 0
Yverdon
04 Sept
Aarau
3 : 2
Rapperswil-Jona
01 Sept
Rapperswil-Jona
1 : 1
Kriens
28 Aug
Etoile-Carouge
2 : 1
Rapperswil-Jona
Page 1 of 6

Aarau

(Away)
24 Sept
Grasshoppers
4 : 1
Aarau
18 Sept
Winterthur
2 : 1
Aarau
12 Sept
Aarau
2 : 2
Kriens
04 Sept
Aarau
3 : 2
Rapperswil-Jona
31 Aug
Wil
2 : 2
Aarau
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vaduz 36 25 6 5 75:41 81
2 Aarau 36 25 5 6 77:47 80
3 Yverdon 36 20 7 9 75:48 67
4 Lausanne Ouchy 36 14 8 14 59:51 50
5 Xamax 36 14 7 15 55:56 49
6 Rapperswil-Jona 36 14 2 20 52:62 44
7 Etoile-Carouge 36 10 10 16 46:54 40
8 Wil 36 10 10 16 39:55 40
9 Stade Nyonnais 36 5 13 18 33:60 28
10 Bellinzona 36 5 8 23 40:77 23
Promotion - Super League (Main)
Promotion - Super League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Promotion League (Main)