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Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves

Spain Spain

LaLiga Campo de Futbol de Vallecas, Madrid
Thu, Aug 20, 2026
VS
07:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Rayo Vallecano host Alaves in the LaLiga. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Alaves have shipped 1.13 goals a game lately, while Rayo Vallecano have conceded 0.75 and scored 1.63. Head-to-head, Rayo Vallecano have won 4 to Alaves's 1, with 0 draws. They last met on May 23, 2026, ending 1:2. The numbers (1.38 xG vs 1.00) point toward Rayo Vallecano. The model calls this a Draw — both sides look evenly matched.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Rayo Vallecano
30%
Draws
34%
Alaves
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Rayo Vallecano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Rayo Vallecano lately — more wins on the board than Alaves.
  • Rayo Vallecano are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • Regular LaLiga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Rayo Vallecano have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Rayo Vallecano Clean Sheet 20%
Alaves Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Rayo Vallecano Alaves
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 11 10
Draws 8 8
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.63 1.25
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 23, 2026 LaLiga
Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano
1:2
Jan 14, 2026 Copa del Rey
Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano
2:0
Oct 26, 2025 LaLiga
Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves
1:0
Mar 29, 2025 LaLiga
Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano
0:2
Oct 26, 2024 LaLiga
Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Rayo Vallecano 36 / 100
Alaves 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Rayo Vallecano Alaves

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Rayo Vallecano found the back of the net in 74% of recent matches (31 games).

Defensive concern: Alaves conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Rayo Vallecano remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Rayo Vallecano VS Alaves
1.63 Goals Scored 1.25
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Rayo Vallecano

(Home)
17 Jul
Hearts
2 : 1
Rayo Vallecano
27 May
Crystal Palace
1 : 0
Rayo Vallecano
23 May
Alaves
1 : 2
Rayo Vallecano
17 May
Rayo Vallecano
2 : 0
Villarreal
14 May
Valencia
1 : 1
Rayo Vallecano
Page 1 of 7

Alaves

(Away)
25 Jul
Girona
0 : 1
Alaves
18 Jul
Alaves
1 : 1
Eibar
23 May
Alaves
1 : 2
Rayo Vallecano
17 May
Real Oviedo
0 : 1
Alaves
13 May
Alaves
1 : 0
Barcelona
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Real Sociedad00000:00
2Elche00000:00
3Alaves00000:00
4Celta Vigo00000:00
5Malaga00000:00
6Rayo Vallecano00000:00
7Real Madrid00000:00
8Villarreal00000:00
9Barcelona00000:00
10Atl. Madrid00000:00
11Sevilla00000:00
12Racing Santander00000:00
13Dep. A Coruna00000:00
14Valencia00000:00
15Ath Bilbao00000:00
16Espanyol00000:00
17Betis00000:00
18Getafe00000:00
19Osasuna00000:00
20Levante00000:00
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2 2027/2028 (Main)