Sport Picks
Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves Prediction & H2H Stats
Spain
LaLiga Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Leganes 
Match Events
17'
17'
Sub
Palazon I. In: Nteka R.
Out: Palazon I.
35'
35'
Fernandez P.
45'
45'
Tenaglia N.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this LaLiga matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
20%
40%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
40%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Rayo Vallecano lately — more wins on the board than Alaves.
- Alaves are the model's pick here, at 50%.
- Regular LaLiga form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%
Rayo Vallecano Clean Sheet 10%
Alaves Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Rayo Vallecano | Alaves |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 29 |
| Wins | 13 | 11 |
| Draws | 7 | 9 |
| Losses | 11 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.39 | 1.59 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.39 | 1.41 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 2.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 20, 2026 LaLiga
Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves
1:1
May 23, 2026 LaLiga
Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano
1:2
Jan 14, 2026 Copa del Rey
Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano
2:0
Oct 26, 2025 LaLiga
Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves
1:0
Mar 29, 2025 LaLiga
Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano
0:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Rayo Vallecano Compare
Top Goalscorer Camello S.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59
Alaves Compare
Top Goalscorer Diaz M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 2.1
Avg xA / game 1.28
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Rayo Vallecano 22 / 100
Alaves 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Rayo Vallecano Alaves
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Alaves Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Rayo Vallecano scored in 84% of their last 31 outings.
Defensive concern: Alaves conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.
Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.
Rayo Vallecano has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Rayo Vallecano VS Alaves
1.5 Goals Scored 2
2.63 Goals Conceded 0.88
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Rayo Vallecano
(Home) 19 Sept
Osasuna
1 : 1 Rayo Vallecano
15 Sept
Rayo Vallecano
2 : 1 Espanyol
12 Sept
Real Madrid
4 : 1 Rayo Vallecano
05 Sept
Rayo Vallecano
3 : 2 Racing Santander
31 Aug
Barcelona
5 : 2 Rayo Vallecano
Page 1 of 7
15 Sept
Rayo Vallecano
2 : 1 Espanyol
05 Sept
Rayo Vallecano
3 : 2 Racing Santander
20 Aug
Rayo Vallecano
1 : 1 Alaves
17 May
Rayo Vallecano
2 : 0 Villarreal
11 May
Rayo Vallecano
1 : 1 Girona
Page 1 of 3
Alaves
(Away) 19 Sept
Ath Bilbao
0 : 0 Alaves
15 Sept
Alaves
0 : 1 Valencia
12 Sept
Racing Santander
2 : 1 Alaves
06 Sept
Alaves
5 : 2 Osasuna
28 Aug
Alaves
1 : 0 Villarreal
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Ath Bilbao
0 : 0 Alaves
12 Sept
Racing Santander
2 : 1 Alaves
20 Aug
Rayo Vallecano
1 : 1 Alaves
07 Aug
Racing Santander
1 : 2 Alaves
25 Jul
Girona
0 : 1 Alaves
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 31:7 | 21 |
| 2 | Atl. Madrid | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16:7 | 16 |
| 3 | Betis | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9:7 | 16 |
| 4 | Real Madrid | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 18:8 | 15 |
| 5 | Sevilla | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10:9 | 13 |
| 6 | Alaves | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11:6 | 11 |
| 7 | Dep. A Coruna | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10:8 | 10 |
| 8 | Real Sociedad | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9:13 | 10 |
| 9 | Villarreal | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13:12 | 8 |
| 10 | Ath Bilbao | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7:6 | 8 |
| 11 | Getafe | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4:7 | 8 |
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11:16 | 8 |
| 13 | Osasuna | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6:13 | 8 |
| 14 | Celta Vigo | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 8:6 | 7 |
| 15 | Espanyol | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10:10 | 7 |
| 16 | Racing Santander | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11:21 | 7 |
| 17 | Levante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8:12 | 5 |
| 18 | Elche | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11:17 | 5 |
| 19 | Valencia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4:13 | 4 |
| 20 | Malaga | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3:12 | 3 |
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - LaLiga2 2027/2028 (Main)
