Sport Picks

Germany

Bundesliga 2025/2026 Red Bull Arena

St. Pauli

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

RB Leipzig play St. Pauli in the Bundesliga 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, RB Leipzig averaged 1.93 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. St. Pauli averaged 1.13 goals scored and 1.63 conceded. In past meetings, RB Leipzig won 3, St. Pauli won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 9, 2026 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.19 for RB Leipzig and 0.94 for St. Pauli. This points to a RB Leipzig double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%

RB Leipzig

26%

Draws

25%

St. Pauli

Draw rate projection: 26% Favored: RB Leipzig

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / High Confidence

RB Leipzig picked up more points recently compared to St. Pauli.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.19 vs 0.94 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 66%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 85%

Over 2.5 Goals 66%

Over 3.5 Goals 40%

Over 4.5 Goals 20%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66%

RB Leipzig Clean Sheet 24%

St. Pauli Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 77%

Second Half Goal 81%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	RB Leipzig	St. Pauli
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	16	8
Draws	4	8
Losses	10	14
Goals Scored	1.93	1.13
Goals Conceded	1.5	1.63
Expected Goals (xG)	2.13	0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.13	2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 Bundesliga

RB Leipzig vs St. Pauli

Possession: 52% - 44% Cards: 3 - 3

2:1

Jan 27, 2026 Bundesliga

St. Pauli vs RB Leipzig

Possession: 42% - 53% Cards: 0 - 3

1:1

Feb 9, 2025 Bundesliga

RB Leipzig vs St. Pauli

Possession: 44% - 43% Cards: 0 - 3

2:0

Oct 29, 2024 DFB Pokal

RB Leipzig vs St. Pauli

Possession: 49% - 49% Cards: 4 - 4

4:2

Sep 22, 2024 Bundesliga

St. Pauli vs RB Leipzig

Possession: 56% - 56% Cards: 1 - 2

0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

RB Leipzig Compare

Top Goalscorer Schlager X.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Orban W.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.64

Avg xA / game 1.06

St. Pauli Compare

Top Goalscorer Ceesay A.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

RB Leipzig 49 / 100

St. Pauli 25 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

RB Leipzig St. Pauli

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: RB Leipzig or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +19.6%

2.44

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +10.2%

1.67

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

RB Leipzig attacking → ← attacking St. Pauli

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

RB Leipzig scored in 90% of their last 30 games.

St. Pauli let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

RB Leipzig went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

St. Pauli lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

52 Points in last 5 32

2.13 Goals expected (xG) 0.75

1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.25

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bayern Munich	34	28	5	1	122:36	89
2	Dortmund	34	22	7	5	70:34	73
3	RB Leipzig	34	20	5	9	66:47	65
4	VfB Stuttgart	34	18	8	8	71:49	62
5	Hoffenheim	34	18	7	9	65:52	61
6	Bayer Leverkusen	34	17	8	9	68:47	59
7	Freiburg	34	13	8	13	51:57	47
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	34	11	11	12	61:65	44
9	Augsburg	34	12	7	15	45:61	43
10	Mainz	34	10	10	14	44:53	40
11	Union Berlin	34	10	9	15	44:58	39
12	B. Monchengladbach	34	9	11	14	42:53	38
13	Hamburger	34	9	11	14	40:54	38
14	1. FC Koln	34	7	11	16	49:63	32
15	Werder Bremen	34	8	8	18	37:60	32
16	Wolfsburg	34	7	8	19	45:69	29
17	Heidenheim	34	6	8	20	41:72	26
18	St. Pauli	34	6	8	20	29:60	26