Sport Picks

Italy

Serie D - Group B

Castellanzese

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Real Calepina play Castellanzese in the Serie D - Group B. It looks like a close match. Recently, Real Calepina averaged 1.13 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Castellanzese averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.23 conceded. In past meetings, Real Calepina won 1, Castellanzese won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Feb 8, 2026 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.06 for Real Calepina and 1.13 for Castellanzese. This points to a Castellanzese double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%

Real Calepina

24%

Draws

39%

Castellanzese

Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: Castellanzese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence

Real Calepina picked up more points recently compared to Castellanzese.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.06 vs 1.13 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 71%

Over 2.5 Goals 48%

Over 3.5 Goals 29%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 60%

Real Calepina Clean Sheet 21%

Castellanzese Clean Sheet 14%

First Half Goal 64%

Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Real Calepina	Castellanzese
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	9	9
Draws	8	8
Losses	13	13
Goals Scored	1.13	1.03
Goals Conceded	1.4	1.23
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.38	1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 8, 2026 Serie D - Group B

Real Calepina vs Castellanzese

Possession: 43% - 53% Cards: 2 - 3

1:2

Oct 5, 2025 Serie D - Group B

Castellanzese vs Real Calepina

Possession: 42% - 44% Cards: 3 - 4

3:2

Jan 7, 2024 Serie D - Group B

Castellanzese vs Real Calepina

Possession: 46% - 46% Cards: 1 - 0

2:1

Sep 10, 2023 Serie D - Group B

Real Calepina vs Castellanzese

Possession: 41% - 48% Cards: 2 - 3

1:1

Apr 14, 2022 Serie D - Group B

Real Calepina vs Castellanzese

Possession: 57% - 45% Cards: 2 - 4

2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Real Calepina Compare

Top Goalscorer Lugnan G.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.77

Avg xA / game 0.5

Castellanzese Compare

Top Goalscorer Chessa M.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Castelletto E.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.8

Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Real Calepina 38 / 100

Castellanzese 38 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Real Calepina Castellanzese

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Castellanzese or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +27.6%

3.45

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +14.2%

2.38

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Real Calepina attacking → ← attacking Castellanzese

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Real Calepina scored in 80% of their last 30 games.

Castellanzese let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Real Calepina went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Castellanzese lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

35 Points in last 5 35

1.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.88

1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Folgore Caratese	34	19	11	4	58:27	68
2	USD Casatese	34	16	13	5	49:28	61
3	Chievo	34	18	6	10	52:43	60
4	AC Milan U23	34	16	8	10	62:37	56
5	AC Leon	34	14	11	9	44:34	53
6	Brusaporto	34	15	6	13	41:38	51
7	Oltrepo	34	15	8	11	38:36	50
8	Scanzorosciate	34	11	14	9	41:33	47
9	Villa Valle	34	13	8	13	43:46	47
10	Ciserano-Bergamo	34	11	13	10	33:31	46
11	Caldiero Terme	34	10	15	9	50:40	45
12	Real Calepina	34	11	9	14	42:47	42
13	Castellanzese	34	10	11	13	41:39	41
14	Breno	34	9	11	14	39:51	38
15	Pavia	34	9	10	15	36:47	37
16	Varesina	34	7	15	12	38:44	36
17	Sondrio	34	8	7	19	37:64	31
18	Vogherese	34	2	8	24	21:80	-17