Sport Picks
Real Calepina vs Castellanzese Prediction & H2H Stats
Italy
Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 
Match Events
23'
23'
Chessa M.
61'
61'
Castelletto E.
85'
85'
Lugnan G.
AI Match Summary
Castellanzese in this Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Castellanzese.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
29%
20%
51%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Castellanzese
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Castellanzese have won more games recently than Real Calepina.
- Win probability leans Castellanzese's way, sitting at 90%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Real Calepina Clean Sheet 12%
Castellanzese Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Real Calepina | Castellanzese |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 30 |
| Wins | 9 | 10 |
| Draws | 7 | 7 |
| Losses | 12 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.21 | 1.2 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.32 | 1.17 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.56 | 1.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 8, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Real Calepina vs Castellanzese
1:2
Oct 5, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Castellanzese vs Real Calepina
3:2
Jan 7, 2024 Serie D - Group B
Castellanzese vs Real Calepina
2:1
Sep 10, 2023 Serie D - Group B
Real Calepina vs Castellanzese
1:1
Apr 14, 2022 Serie D - Group B
Real Calepina vs Castellanzese
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Real Calepina Compare
Top Goalscorer Lugnan G.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78
Castellanzese Compare
Top Goalscorer Chessa M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Castelletto E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Real Calepina 10 / 100
Castellanzese 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Real Calepina Castellanzese
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Castellanzese Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Real Calepina found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (28 games).
Games between these two average 3.20 goals.
Defensive concern: Castellanzese conceded in 73% of 30 recent games.
Real Calepina went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Real Calepina VS Castellanzese
1.63 Goals Scored 1.5
2 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Real Calepina
(Home) 27 Sept
Real Calepina
2 : 3 Brusaporto
20 Sept
Piacenza
3 : 1 Real Calepina
16 Sept
Real Calepina
2 : 2 Caldiero Terme
12 Sept
Scanzorosciate
0 : 0 Real Calepina
06 Sept
Real Calepina
5 : 1 Pro Palazzolo
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
Real Calepina
2 : 3 Brusaporto
16 Sept
Real Calepina
2 : 2 Caldiero Terme
06 Sept
Real Calepina
5 : 1 Pro Palazzolo
03 May
Real Calepina
1 : 1 Scanzorosciate
12 Apr
Real Calepina
1 : 1 Breno
Page 1 of 3
Castellanzese
(Away) 27 Sept
Castellanzese
4 : 0 Crema
20 Sept
Solbiatese
1 : 4 Castellanzese
16 Sept
Castellanzese
0 : 1 Oltrepo
12 Sept
Lentigione
1 : 0 Castellanzese
06 Sept
Castellanzese
3 : 1 US Pontedera
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Solbiatese
1 : 4 Castellanzese
12 Sept
Lentigione
1 : 0 Castellanzese
03 May
Ciserano-Bergamo
1 : 1 Castellanzese
19 Apr
Chievo
2 : 2 Castellanzese
02 Apr
USD Casatese
1 : 0 Castellanzese
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Folgore Caratese | 34 | 19 | 11 | 4 | 58:27 | 68 |
| 2 | USD Casatese | 34 | 16 | 13 | 5 | 49:28 | 61 |
| 3 | Chievo | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 52:43 | 60 |
| 4 | AC Milan U23 | 34 | 16 | 8 | 10 | 62:37 | 56 |
| 5 | AC Leon | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 44:34 | 53 |
| 6 | Brusaporto | 34 | 15 | 6 | 13 | 41:38 | 51 |
| 7 | Oltrepo | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 38:36 | 50 |
| 8 | Scanzorosciate | 34 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 41:33 | 47 |
| 9 | Villa Valle | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 43:46 | 47 |
| 10 | Ciserano-Bergamo | 34 | 11 | 13 | 10 | 33:31 | 46 |
| 11 | Caldiero Terme | 34 | 10 | 15 | 9 | 50:40 | 45 |
| 12 | Real Calepina | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 42:47 | 42 |
| 13 | Castellanzese | 34 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 41:39 | 41 |
| 14 | Breno | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 39:51 | 38 |
| 15 | Pavia | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 36:47 | 37 |
| 16 | Varesina | 34 | 7 | 15 | 12 | 38:44 | 36 |
| 17 | Sondrio | 34 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 37:64 | 31 |
| 18 | Vogherese | 34 | 2 | 8 | 24 | 21:80 | -17 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Out)
