Sport Picks
Real Madrid vs Benfica Prediction & H2H Stats
Europe
Champions League 2025/2026 Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid 
Match Events
14'
14'
Silva R.
16'
16'
Tchouameni A.
Assist: Valverde F.
32'
32'
Guler A.
AI Match Summary
Real Madrid in this Champions League 2025/2026 tie, finishing 2-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
36%
15%
49%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Benfica
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
49%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Real Madrid lately — more wins on the board than Benfica.
- Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
- Real Madrid have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Real Madrid, who have won 1 of the last 4 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.6%
Real Madrid Clean Sheet 10%
Benfica Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Real Madrid | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 30 |
| Wins | 21 | 20 |
| Draws | 3 | 6 |
| Losses | 7 | 4 |
| Goals Scored | 2.13 | 2.67 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.13 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.56 | 1.94 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 25, 2026 Champions League
Real Madrid vs Benfica
2:1
Feb 17, 2026 Champions League
Benfica vs Real Madrid
0:1
Jan 28, 2026 Champions League
Benfica vs Real Madrid
4:2
Jul 27, 2012 Club Friendly
Benfica vs Real Madrid
5:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Real Madrid Compare
Top Goalscorer Tchouameni A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Vinicius Junior
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78
Benfica Compare
Top Goalscorer Silva R.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Real Madrid 34 / 100
Benfica 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Real Madrid Benfica
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Benfica Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Real Madrid scored in 90% of their last 31 outings.
Historical meetings average 4.25 goals per match.
Benfica has conceded goals in 70% of their last 30 outings.
Recent resilience: Real Madrid stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Real Madrid VS Benfica
2.5 Goals Scored 3.25
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Real Madrid
(Home) 20 Sept
Atl. Madrid
2 : 1 Real Madrid
15 Sept
Elche
2 : 3 Real Madrid
12 Sept
Real Madrid
4 : 1 Rayo Vallecano
08 Sept
Real Madrid
2 : 1 Inter
04 Sept
Betis
1 : 0 Real Madrid
Page 1 of 7
12 Sept
Real Madrid
4 : 1 Rayo Vallecano
08 Sept
Real Madrid
2 : 1 Inter
30 Aug
Real Madrid
4 : 0 Malaga
26 Aug
Real Madrid
4 : 1 Real Sociedad
01 Aug
Real Madrid
2 : 2 Fiorentina
Page 1 of 4
Benfica
(Away) 20 Sept
FC Porto
3 : 1 Benfica
16 Sept
AC Milan
0 : 2 Benfica
13 Sept
Benfica
3 : 1 Gil Vicente
09 Sept
Moreirense
0 : 4 Benfica
05 Sept
Maritimo
0 : 3 Benfica
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
FC Porto
3 : 1 Benfica
16 Sept
AC Milan
0 : 2 Benfica
09 Sept
Moreirense
0 : 4 Benfica
05 Sept
Maritimo
0 : 3 Benfica
27 Aug
Aarhus
1 : 3 Benfica
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Monaco 4
PSG 5
Chelsea -
TBD -
Galatasaray 7
Juventus 5
Liverpool -
TBD -
Benfica 1
Real Madrid 3
Manchester City -
TBD -
Dortmund 3
Atalanta 4
Bayern Munich -
TBD -
Qarabag Agdam 3
Newcastle Utd 9
Barcelona -
TBD -
Club Brugge 4
Atl. Madrid 7
Tottenham -
TBD -
Bodo/Glimt 5
Inter 2
Sporting CP -
TBD -
Olympiacos Piraeus 0
Bayer Leverkusen 2
Arsenal -
TBD -
1/8-finals
PSG 8
Chelsea 2
Galatasaray 1
Liverpool 4
Real Madrid 5
Manchester City 1
Atalanta 2
Bayern Munich 10
Newcastle Utd 3
Barcelona 8
Atl. Madrid 7
Tottenham 5
Bodo/Glimt 3
Sporting CP 5
Bayer Leverkusen 1
Arsenal 3
Quarter-finals
PSG 4
Liverpool 0
Real Madrid 4
Bayern Munich 6
Barcelona 2
Atl. Madrid 3
Sporting CP 0
Arsenal 1
Semi-finals
PSG 6
Bayern Munich 5
Atl. Madrid 1
Arsenal 2
Final
PSG 2
Arsenal 1
