Sport Picks

USA

US Open Cup 2025 Zions Bank Stadium, Herriman, UT

Real Monarchs

Thu, Mar 20, 2025

1 - 3

01:30 AM

El Farolito

Our Tip

Match Events

18'

Benson Bodden D. O.

Assist: Higuera J.

58'

Riquelme A.

Assist: Caliskan N.

104'

Henry K.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

El Farolito in this US Open Cup 2025 tie, finishing 1-3. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%

Real Monarchs

44%

Draws

20%

El Farolito

Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence

El Farolito haven't matched Real Monarchs's recent run of results.
Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
Real Monarchs have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
Historical meetings favor El Farolito, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%

Over 1.5 Goals 94%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 25%

Over 4.5 Goals 11%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%

Real Monarchs Clean Sheet 17%

El Farolito Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Real Monarchs	El Farolito
Matches Played	31	12
Wins	17	6
Draws	0	0
Losses	14	6
Goals Scored	1.75	0
Goals Conceded	1.75	2
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.75	2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 20, 2025 US Open Cup

Real Monarchs vs El Farolito

1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Real Monarchs Compare

Top Goalscorer Riquelme A.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.35

Avg xA / game 0.88

El Farolito Compare

Top Goalscorer Benson Bodden D. O.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Arias Villalta E.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0

Avg xA / game 0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Real Monarchs 36 / 100

El Farolito 20 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Real Monarchs El Farolito

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ELF Win (2)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

El Farolito has conceded goals in 92% of their last 12 outings.

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Real Monarchs found the back of the net in 77% of recent matches (31 games).

Difficult form: El Farolito registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Real Monarchs VS El Farolito

1.75 Goals Scored 0

1.75 Goals Conceded 2

88% Over 1.5 100%

75% Over 2.5 0%

50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Real Monarchs

(Home)

20 Jul

Real Monarchs

2 : 4

Tacoma Defiance

12 Jul

Real Monarchs

2 : 1

Vancouver Whitecaps 2

06 Jul

Los Angeles FC 2

2 : 3

Real Monarchs

28 Jun

Ventura County

3 : 1

Real Monarchs

22 Jun

Tacoma Defiance

1 : 0

Real Monarchs

Page 1 of 7

El Farolito

(Away)

19 Mar

Sacramento Republic

2 : 0

El Farolito

17 Apr

Sacramento Republic

1 : 0

El Farolito

02 Apr

Monterey Bay

1 : 2

El Farolito

20 Mar

Real Monarchs

1 : 3

El Farolito

17 Apr

Oakland Roots

2 : 1

El Farolito

Page 1 of 3

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Scroll horizontally to view stages →

1/128-finals

Louisville City-

TBD-

West Chester United2

Loudoun United3

Richmond Kickers1

Virginia Dream3

TBD-

Minnesota United-

St. Louis City-

TBD-

Sporting Kansas City II1

Menace2

Flatirons1

Union Omaha2

TBD-

San Antonio FC-

Hartford Athletic3

New York Shockers0

Portland Hearts of Pine4

Faialense0

TBD-

Rhode Island-

TBD-

New England Revolution-

Chicago Fire-

TBD-

Detroit City-

TBD-

Motown0

Westchester SC1

FC Cincinnati 20

New York Pancyprian1

Tacoma Defiance3

Washington AC1

Ballard0

Spokane Velocity1

TBD-

Oakland Roots-

TBD-

Portland Timbers-

Sacramento Republic-

TBD-

Monterey Bay4

International San Francisco0

Real Monarchs1

El Farolito3

TBD-

San Jose Earthquakes-

Forward Madison5

Duluth FC1

Tulsa Athletic0

FC Tulsa1

TBD-

Phoenix Rising-

TBD-

Houston Dynamo-

Austin FC-

TBD-

New Mexico-

TBD-

Ventura County7

Laguna United0

El Paso Locomotive5

Harpos1

Philadelphia Union-

TBD-

Indy Eleven-

TBD-

Inter Miami II4

Miami United2

Miami FC4

Naples United1

Columbus Crew 24

NY Renegades1

Lexington5

Southern Indiana0

TBD-

Pittsburgh Riverhounds-

TBD-

New York City-

Colorado Springs-

TBD-

Asheville City0

Greenville Triumph1

Appalachian FC0

One Knoxville3

TBD-

New York Red Bulls-

FC Dallas-

TBD-

AV Alta FC3

Ventura1

Los Angeles FC 27

Arizona FC1

TBD-

Orange County SC-

Sarasota Paradise1

FC Naples2

Little Rock Rangers1

Birmingham Legion0

TBD-

Tampa Bay-

TBD-

Orlando City-

Nashville SC-

TBD-

Las Vegas Lights-

TBD-

Chattanooga1

Corpus Christi FC0

New Jersey Alliance2

Chattanooga Red Wolves3

Long Island2

Charlotte Independence3

Carolina Core4

Soda City2

TBD-

North Carolina FC-

TBD-

Charlotte FC-

DC United-

TBD-

Charleston-

TBD-

South Georgia Tormenta3

Harbor City0

Texoma FC1

Foro2

1/64-finals

Louisville City-

TBD-

Loudoun United4

Virginia Dream2

TBD-

Minnesota United-

St. Louis City-

TBD-

Menace1

Union Omaha2

TBD-

San Antonio FC-

Hartford Athletic1

Portland Hearts of Pine2

TBD-

Rhode Island-

TBD-

New England Revolution-

Chicago Fire-

TBD-

Detroit City-

TBD-

Westchester SC3

New York Pancyprian2

Tacoma Defiance2

Spokane Velocity1

TBD-

Oakland Roots-

TBD-

Portland Timbers-

Sacramento Republic-

TBD-

Monterey Bay1

El Farolito2

TBD-

San Jose Earthquakes-

Forward Madison1

FC Tulsa3

TBD-

Phoenix Rising-

TBD-

Houston Dynamo-

Austin FC-

TBD-

New Mexico-

TBD-

Ventura County0

El Paso Locomotive3

Philadelphia Union-

TBD-

Indy Eleven-

TBD-

Inter Miami II0

Miami FC1

Columbus Crew 23

Lexington0

TBD-

Pittsburgh Riverhounds-

TBD-

New York City-

Colorado Springs-

TBD-

Greenville Triumph1

One Knoxville3

TBD-

New York Red Bulls-

FC Dallas-

TBD-

AV Alta FC2

Los Angeles FC 21

TBD-

Orange County SC-

FC Naples3

Little Rock Rangers0

TBD-

Tampa Bay-

TBD-

Orlando City-

Nashville SC-

TBD-

Las Vegas Lights-

TBD-

Chattanooga1

Chattanooga Red Wolves2

Charlotte Independence2

Carolina Core1

TBD-

North Carolina FC-

TBD-

Charlotte FC-

DC United-

TBD-

Charleston-

TBD-

South Georgia Tormenta3

Foro2

1/32-finals

Louisville City2

Loudoun United1

TBD-

Minnesota United-

St. Louis City-

TBD-

Union Omaha1

San Antonio FC0

Portland Hearts of Pine1

Rhode Island2

TBD-

New England Revolution-

Chicago Fire-

TBD-

Detroit City3

Westchester SC1

Tacoma Defiance2

Oakland Roots1

TBD-

Portland Timbers-

Sacramento Republic1

El Farolito0

TBD-

San Jose Earthquakes-

FC Tulsa1

Phoenix Rising2

TBD-

Houston Dynamo-

Austin FC-

TBD-

New Mexico2

El Paso Locomotive3

Philadelphia Union-

TBD-

Indy Eleven1

Miami FC0

Columbus Crew 20

Pittsburgh Riverhounds1

TBD-

New York City-

Colorado Springs3

One Knoxville2

TBD-

New York Red Bulls-

FC Dallas-

TBD-

AV Alta FC3

Orange County SC2

FC Naples1

Tampa Bay2

TBD-

Orlando City-

Nashville SC-

TBD-

Las Vegas Lights2

Chattanooga Red Wolves3

Charlotte Independence1

North Carolina FC3

TBD-

Charlotte FC-

DC United-

TBD-

Charleston4

South Georgia Tormenta0

1/16-finals

Louisville City0

Minnesota United1

St. Louis City2

Union Omaha0

Rhode Island1

New England Revolution2

Chicago Fire4

Detroit City0

Tacoma Defiance2

Portland Timbers3

Sacramento Republic1

San Jose Earthquakes2

Phoenix Rising1

Houston Dynamo4

Austin FC3

El Paso Locomotive2

Philadelphia Union2

Indy Eleven1

Pittsburgh Riverhounds1

New York City0

Colorado Springs1

New York Red Bulls4

FC Dallas3

AV Alta FC1

Tampa Bay0

Orlando City5

Nashville SC1

Chattanooga Red Wolves0

North Carolina FC1

Charlotte FC4

DC United2

Charleston0

1/8-finals

Minnesota United3

St. Louis City2

New England Revolution1

Chicago Fire3

Portland Timbers0

San Jose Earthquakes1

Houston Dynamo1

Austin FC3

Philadelphia Union4

Pittsburgh Riverhounds1

New York Red Bulls3

FC Dallas2

Orlando City2

Nashville SC3

Charlotte FC3

DC United4

Quarter-finals

Minnesota United3

Chicago Fire1

San Jose Earthquakes2

Austin FC3

Philadelphia Union3

New York Red Bulls2

Nashville SC5

DC United2

Semi-finals

Minnesota United1

Austin FC2

Philadelphia Union1

Nashville SC3

Final

Austin FC1

Nashville SC2