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Real Refineros vs Ciervos - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Mexico Mexico

Liga Premier Serie A
Fri, Sep 25, 2026
3 - 4
06:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Liga Premier Serie A game between Real Refineros and Ciervos finished 3-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ciervos.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Real Refineros
15%
Draws
26%
Ciervos
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Real Refineros

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Real Refineros haven't matched Ciervos's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Real Refineros a 59% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Liga Premier Serie A form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 40.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Real Refineros Clean Sheet 20%
Ciervos Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Real Refineros Ciervos
Matches Played 6 29
Wins 2 5
Draws 1 4
Losses 3 20
Goals Scored 1.67 0.86
Goals Conceded 1.83 2.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.90 1.23
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 25, 2026 Liga Premier Serie A
Real Refineros vs Ciervos
3:4

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Real Refineros 85 / 100
Ciervos 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Real Refineros Ciervos

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Real Refineros Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Real Refineros found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (6 games).

Ciervos's defensive record shows goals conceded in 90% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 7.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Real Refineros stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Real Refineros VS Ciervos
1.43 Goals Scored 0.88
1.57 Goals Conceded 2.38
57% Over 1.5 100%
57% Over 2.5 63%
43% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Real Refineros

(Home)
04 Oct
Dragones de Oaxaca
3 : 2
Real Refineros
25 Sept
Real Refineros
3 : 4
Ciervos
20 Sept
CD Delfines Coatzacoalcos
2 : 3
Real Refineros
12 Sept
Real Refineros
0 : 0
Calor De San Pedro
06 Sept
Canoneros FC
0 : 1
Real Refineros
Page 1 of 2

Ciervos

(Away)
03 Oct
Ciervos
0 : 5
Halcones Negros
25 Sept
Real Refineros
3 : 4
Ciervos
19 Sept
Calor De San Pedro
4 : 0
Ciervos
16 Sept
Ciervos
0 : 3
Artesanos Metepec
05 Sept
Guerreros del Pacifico
2 : 0
Ciervos
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 La Tribu de Cd. Juarez 6 4 0 2 15:8 13
2 Zapotlanejo 6 4 1 1 10:6 13
3 Vaqueros 6 4 1 1 11:8 13
4 Mineros de Fresnillo 6 3 2 1 8:2 11
5 Correcaminos 2 6 2 2 2 7:7 8
6 Guerreros de Autlan 6 2 1 3 10:12 8
7 Saltillo Soccer F.C. 6 3 0 3 9:15 8
8 FC Santiago 6 2 1 3 9:7 7
9 Apodaca 6 1 1 4 7:12 4
10 Heroes de Zaci 6 0 1 5 3:12 2
Promotion - Liga Premier Serie A (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Artesanos Metepec 6 6 0 0 16:4 19
2 Dragones de Oaxaca 6 4 1 1 14:7 15
3 Halcones Negros 6 3 1 2 17:4 11
4 Acambaro 6 3 1 2 16:8 10
5 CD Delfines Coatzacoalcos 6 2 2 2 8:8 8
6 Guerreros del Pacifico 5 2 1 2 4:4 8
7 Calor De San Pedro 5 2 1 2 7:12 8
8 Real Refineros 6 2 1 3 9:10 7
9 Ciervos 6 1 0 5 3:19 2
10 Canoneros FC 6 0 0 6 1:19 0
Promotion - Liga Premier Serie A (Play Offs)