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Real Union vs UD Ourense - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Primera RFEF - Group 1 Stadium Gal, Irun
Our Tip

Match Events

19' Event
Galarza A.
(Penalty)
30'
Tejon D.
35'
Labrada J.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Primera RFEF - Group 1 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Real Union
35%
Draws
32%
UD Ourense
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

33% / Low Confidence
  • Real Union have won more games recently than UD Ourense.
  • Win probability leans Real Union's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Regular Primera RFEF - Group 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Real Union Clean Sheet 20%
UD Ourense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Real Union UD Ourense
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 16 12
Draws 6 8
Losses 6 9
Goals Scored 2.14 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.32 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 3, 2026 Primera RFEF - Group 1
Real Union vs UD Ourense
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Real Union Compare

Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

UD Ourense Compare

Top Goalscorer Dominguez X.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Real Union 76 / 100
UD Ourense 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Real Union UD Ourense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Real Union Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Real Union found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (28 games).

UD Ourense has conceded goals in 66% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Real Union stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Real Union VS UD Ourense
2.25 Goals Scored 0.75
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 25%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Real Union

(Home)
03 Oct
Real Union
1 : 1
UD Ourense
26 Sept
Deportivo Fabril
2 : 0
Real Union
19 Sept
Real Union
2 : 2
Mirandes
13 Sept
Racing Club Ferrol
3 : 2
Real Union
05 Sept
Unionistas de Salamanca
2 : 4
Real Union
Page 1 of 6

UD Ourense

(Away)
10 Oct
UD Ourense
1 : 0
Barakaldo
03 Oct
Real Union
1 : 1
UD Ourense
27 Sept
UD Ourense
0 : 0
Cacereno
19 Sept
Unionistas de Salamanca
3 : 1
UD Ourense
12 Sept
UD Ourense
0 : 3
UD Logrones
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UD Logrones 6 5 1 0 15:7 16
2 Lugo 6 5 1 0 9:3 16
3 Ath Bilbao B 6 3 2 1 12:8 11
4 Cacereno 6 3 2 1 6:3 11
5 Ponferradina 6 3 2 1 5:3 11
6 Mirandes 6 3 1 2 9:7 10
7 Zamora 6 3 1 2 8:6 10
8 Racing Club Ferrol 6 3 1 2 7:5 10
9 Real Union 6 2 2 2 13:11 8
10 Deportivo Fabril 6 2 2 2 8:7 8
11 Pontevedra 6 2 2 2 8:8 8
12 Leonesa 6 2 2 2 4:5 8
13 CD Extremadura 6 2 0 4 5:6 6
14 AD Merida 6 2 0 4 9:11 6
15 Unionistas de Salamanca 6 2 0 4 9:12 6
16 Barakaldo 6 1 3 2 6:9 6
17 Real Aviles 6 1 2 3 9:10 5
18 CD Coria 6 1 2 3 8:11 5
19 UD Ourense 6 0 2 4 2:10 2
20 Arenas Getxo 6 0 2 4 4:14 2
Promotion - LaLiga2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Primera RFEF - Group 1 (Promotion - Play Offs)