Sport Picks
Recanatese vs Aquila Calcio - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Italy
Serie D - Group F Nicola Tubaldi, Recanati 
Match Events
4'
4'
Casolla F.
11'
11'
Marras N.
19'
19'
Curatolo D.
AI Match Summary
The Serie D - Group F game between Recanatese and Aquila Calcio finished 2-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Aquila Calcio.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
5%
15%
80%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Aquila Calcio
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
80%
/ Very High Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Aquila Calcio come out ahead of Recanatese on wins alone.
- Aquila Calcio are the model's pick here, at 90%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- These two have met 5 times recently and Aquila Calcio have taken 5 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Recanatese Clean Sheet 11%
Aquila Calcio Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Recanatese | Aquila Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 6 | 12 |
| Draws | 9 | 9 |
| Losses | 13 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.29 | 1.34 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.61 | 1.07 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.88 | 1.81 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 18, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Recanatese vs Aquila Calcio
2:3
Jan 25, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Recanatese vs Aquila Calcio
0:2
Sep 24, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Aquila Calcio vs Recanatese
2:1
Jan 19, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Recanatese vs Aquila Calcio
0:2
Sep 22, 2024 Serie D - Group F
Aquila Calcio vs Recanatese
2:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Recanatese Compare
Top Goalscorer Casolla F.
1 Goals Assists Leader Marras N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44
Aquila Calcio Compare
Top Goalscorer Curatolo D.
2 Goals Assists Leader Sparacello C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Recanatese 10 / 100
Aquila Calcio 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Recanatese Aquila Calcio
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Aquila Calcio Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Recanatese scored in 75% of their last 28 outings.
Games between these two average 3.00 goals.
Aquila Calcio's defensive record shows goals conceded in 59% of 29 matches.
Recanatese went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Recanatese VS Aquila Calcio
1.38 Goals Scored 1.88
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.38
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Recanatese
(Home) 18 Oct
Recanatese
2 : 3 Aquila Calcio
10 Oct
Notaresco Calcio
2 : 1 Recanatese
04 Oct
Recanatese
2 : 3 Maceratese
27 Sept
Lanciano FC
4 : 1 Recanatese
20 Sept
Recanatese
0 : 0 Montecchio Gallo
Page 1 of 6
18 Oct
Recanatese
2 : 3 Aquila Calcio
04 Oct
Recanatese
2 : 3 Maceratese
20 Sept
Recanatese
0 : 0 Montecchio Gallo
16 Sept
Recanatese
4 : 1 Foligno
06 Sept
Recanatese
0 : 0 Pietralunga
Page 1 of 4
Aquila Calcio
(Away) 18 Oct
Recanatese
2 : 3 Aquila Calcio
11 Oct
Aquila Calcio
2 : 1 Santegidiese
07 Oct
Aquila Calcio
2 : 1 Termoli
04 Oct
Pietralunga
0 : 3 Aquila Calcio
27 Sept
Aquila Calcio
2 : 0 Teramo
Page 1 of 6
18 Oct
Recanatese
2 : 3 Aquila Calcio
04 Oct
Pietralunga
0 : 3 Aquila Calcio
20 Sept
Ancona
2 : 2 Aquila Calcio
12 Sept
Fossombrone
0 : 4 Aquila Calcio
01 Aug
Pineto
0 : 1 Aquila Calcio
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aquila Calcio | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 17:5 | 20 |
| 2 | Teramo | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 20:11 | 19 |
| 3 | Vigor Senigallia | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 17:12 | 16 |
| 4 | Foligno | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9:7 | 16 |
| 5 | Notaresco Calcio | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13:9 | 14 |
| 6 | Ancona | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 12:8 | 14 |
| 7 | Atletico Ascoli | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13:10 | 13 |
| 8 | Fossombrone | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10:13 | 13 |
| 9 | Montecchio Gallo | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9:9 | 11 |
| 10 | Giulianova | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11:11 | 10 |
| 11 | Lanciano FC | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 14:15 | 10 |
| 12 | Termoli | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6:7 | 10 |
| 13 | Santegidiese | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7:11 | 8 |
| 14 | Pietralunga | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5:9 | 8 |
| 15 | Maceratese | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9:16 | 7 |
| 16 | Recanatese | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11:14 | 6 |
| 17 | Angelana | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5:12 | 4 |
| 18 | Sporting Trestina | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4:13 | 4 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group F (Play Offs)
