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Recanatese vs Castelnuovo Vomano Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F 2021/2022
Our Tip

Match Events

35' Event
Coly K.
66'
Grieco R.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group F 2021/2022 game between Recanatese and Castelnuovo Vomano finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Castelnuovo Vomano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Recanatese
35%
Draws
22%
Castelnuovo Vomano
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Recanatese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Recanatese carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Recanatese are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group F 2021/2022 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Recanatese Clean Sheet 17%
Castelnuovo Vomano Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Recanatese Castelnuovo Vomano
Matches Played 35 31
Wins 14 9
Draws 9 10
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 1.69 1.26
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 13, 2022 Serie D - Group F
Recanatese vs Castelnuovo Vomano
0:1
Nov 24, 2021 Serie D - Group F
Castelnuovo Vomano vs Recanatese
0:2
Jun 18, 2021 Serie D - Group F
Recanatese vs Castelnuovo Vomano
3:0
Jan 24, 2021 Serie D - Group F
Castelnuovo Vomano vs Recanatese
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Recanatese Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.52

Castelnuovo Vomano Compare

Top Goalscorer Coly K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Recanatese 39 / 100
Castelnuovo Vomano 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Recanatese Castelnuovo Vomano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Recanatese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castelnuovo Vomano's defensive record shows goals conceded in 90% of 31 matches.

Recanatese's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 35 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.25 goals as a typical output.

Recanatese has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Recanatese VS -
0.88 Goals Scored 0
1.75 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
63% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Recanatese

(Home)
27 Sept
Lanciano FC
4 : 1
Recanatese
20 Sept
Recanatese
0 : 0
Montecchio Gallo
16 Sept
Recanatese
4 : 1
Foligno
12 Sept
Santegidiese
1 : 1
Recanatese
06 Sept
Recanatese
0 : 0
Pietralunga
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Castelnuovo Vomano

(Away)
29 May
Vastogirardi
2 : 0
Castelnuovo Vomano
22 May
Vastogirardi
1 : 1
Castelnuovo Vomano
15 May
Castelnuovo Vomano
1 : 2
Montegiorgio
11 May
Porto D'Ascoli
1 : 1
Castelnuovo Vomano
08 May
Castelnuovo Vomano
1 : 1
US Tolentino
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Recanatese 34 20 8 6 69:23 68
2 Trastevere Calcio 34 17 8 9 54:33 59
3 US Tolentino 34 16 8 10 42:30 56
4 Sambenedettese 34 15 10 9 41:36 55
5 Vastese 34 13 14 7 44:32 53
6 Pineto 34 13 13 8 43:29 52
7 Roma City 34 15 6 13 41:45 51
8 Calcio Chieti 34 12 13 9 38:38 49
9 Notaresco Calcio 34 14 7 13 45:41 49
10 Montegiorgio 34 14 7 13 38:36 49
11 Porto D'Ascoli 34 13 10 11 41:39 49
12 Matese 34 13 10 11 44:41 49
13 Fano 34 13 9 12 44:39 48
14 Vastogirardi 34 12 10 12 48:51 46
15 Castelnuovo Vomano 34 11 11 12 49:51 44
16 Castelfidardo 34 11 8 15 36:36 41
17 Nereto 34 2 6 26 23:80 12
18 Alto Casertano 34 1 4 29 21:81 7
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2021/2022 (Winners stage)
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2021/2022 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2021/2022 (Play Out)