Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Recanatese vs Foligno

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F Nicola Tubaldi, Recanati
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Casolla F.
16' Event
Marras N.
45' Event
Tiberi A.

AI Match Summary

Recanatese in this Serie D - Group F matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Recanatese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Recanatese
35%
Draws
41%
Foligno
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Foligno

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

24% / Low Confidence
  • Foligno have won more games recently than Recanatese.
  • Recanatese are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Recanatese Clean Sheet 68%
Foligno Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Recanatese Foligno
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 7 11
Draws 10 8
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 1.25 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.46 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 16, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Recanatese vs Foligno
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Recanatese Compare

Top Goalscorer Casolla F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Marras N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Foligno Compare

Top Goalscorer Tiberi A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Recanatese 59 / 100
Foligno 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Recanatese Foligno

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Recanatese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 5.00 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Recanatese scored in 75% of their last 28 outings.

Foligno has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Solid form: Recanatese remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Recanatese VS Foligno
1.88 Goals Scored 0.75
0.63 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 38%
38% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Recanatese

(Home)
27 Sept
Lanciano FC
4 : 1
Recanatese
20 Sept
Recanatese
0 : 0
Montecchio Gallo
16 Sept
Recanatese
4 : 1
Foligno
12 Sept
Santegidiese
1 : 1
Recanatese
06 Sept
Recanatese
0 : 0
Pietralunga
Page 1 of 6

Foligno

(Away)
27 Sept
Montecchio Gallo
1 : 1
Foligno
20 Sept
Foligno
1 : 0
Notaresco Calcio
16 Sept
Recanatese
4 : 1
Foligno
12 Sept
Pietralunga
0 : 1
Foligno
06 Sept
Foligno
2 : 1
Lanciano FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vigor Senigallia 5 4 1 0 10:4 13
2 Aquila Calcio 5 3 2 0 9:2 11
3 Teramo 5 3 1 1 11:7 10
4 Foligno 5 3 1 1 6:6 10
5 Ancona 5 2 2 1 6:5 8
6 Santegidiese 5 2 2 1 5:4 8
7 Montecchio Gallo 5 2 2 1 5:4 8
8 Lanciano FC 5 2 1 2 10:7 7
9 Atletico Ascoli 5 2 1 2 6:7 7
10 Fossombrone 5 2 1 2 5:9 7
11 Recanatese 5 1 3 1 6:6 6
12 Notaresco Calcio 5 1 2 2 5:6 5
13 Giulianova 5 1 1 3 7:8 4
14 Maceratese 5 1 1 3 4:7 4
15 Sporting Trestina 5 1 1 3 4:7 4
16 Angelana 5 1 1 3 4:7 4
17 Termoli 5 1 1 3 2:5 4
18 Pietralunga 5 0 2 3 2:6 2
Promotion - Serie D - Group F (Play Offs)