Sport Picks
Recanatese vs Vigor Senigallia
Italy
Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 Nicola Tubaldi, Recanati 
Match Events
6'
6'
Pierfederici G.
37'
37'
Grandis T.
82'
82'
De Marco C.
AI Match Summary
The Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 game between Recanatese and Vigor Senigallia finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Recanatese.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
35%
34%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
35%
/ Low Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Vigor Senigallia come out ahead of Recanatese on wins alone.
- Model puts this one close, with a 40% draw probability.
- Regular Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Recanatese Clean Sheet 16%
Vigor Senigallia Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Recanatese | Vigor Senigallia |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 8 | 12 |
| Draws | 10 | 10 |
| Losses | 11 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 1.28 | 1.61 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.41 | 1.18 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 2, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Recanatese vs Vigor Senigallia
2:1
Nov 23, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Vigor Senigallia vs Recanatese
1:1
Mar 23, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Recanatese vs Vigor Senigallia
1:0
Nov 10, 2024 Serie D - Group F
Vigor Senigallia vs Recanatese
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Recanatese Compare
Top Goalscorer Pierfederici G.
1 Goals Assists Leader Nanapere E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75
Vigor Senigallia Compare
Top Goalscorer Grandis T.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Recanatese 31 / 100
Vigor Senigallia 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Recanatese Vigor Senigallia
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Recent resilience: Recanatese stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.
Recanatese scored in 76% of their last 29 games.
Vigor Senigallia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 75% of 28 matches.
Games between these two average 1.50 goals.
Scoring Trends
Recanatese VS Vigor Senigallia
1.5 Goals Scored 2.25
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Recanatese
(Home) 20 Sept
Recanatese
0 : 0 Montecchio Gallo
16 Sept
Recanatese
4 : 1 Foligno
12 Sept
Santegidiese
1 : 1 Recanatese
06 Sept
Recanatese
0 : 0 Pietralunga
17 May
Recanatese
4 : 1 San Marino Calcio
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20 Sept
Recanatese
0 : 0 Montecchio Gallo
16 Sept
Recanatese
4 : 1 Foligno
06 Sept
Recanatese
0 : 0 Pietralunga
17 May
Recanatese
4 : 1 San Marino Calcio
03 May
Recanatese
2 : 0 Fossombrone
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Vigor Senigallia
(Away) 16 Sept
Lanciano FC
1 : 2 Vigor Senigallia
13 Sept
Vigor Senigallia
1 : 0 Giulianova
06 Sept
Sporting Trestina
2 : 5 Vigor Senigallia
03 May
Unipomezia
3 : 3 Vigor Senigallia
26 Apr
Vigor Senigallia
2 : 3 Calcio Chieti
Page 1 of 6
16 Sept
Lanciano FC
1 : 2 Vigor Senigallia
06 Sept
Sporting Trestina
2 : 5 Vigor Senigallia
03 May
Unipomezia
3 : 3 Vigor Senigallia
19 Apr
Castelfidardo
1 : 3 Vigor Senigallia
02 Apr
Recanatese
2 : 1 Vigor Senigallia
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ostiamare | 34 | 24 | 7 | 3 | 65:25 | 79 |
| 2 | Ancona | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 59:22 | 76 |
| 3 | Teramo | 34 | 21 | 11 | 2 | 65:29 | 74 |
| 4 | Atletico Ascoli | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 55:35 | 55 |
| 5 | Notaresco Calcio | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 43:31 | 51 |
| 6 | Aquila Calcio | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 53:44 | 51 |
| 7 | Giulianova | 34 | 11 | 16 | 7 | 40:31 | 49 |
| 8 | Vigor Senigallia | 34 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 45:40 | 49 |
| 9 | Fossombrone | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 28:34 | 44 |
| 10 | Unipomezia | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 43:42 | 42 |
| 11 | Termoli | 34 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 27:30 | 39 |
| 12 | Maceratese | 34 | 11 | 5 | 18 | 43:49 | 38 |
| 13 | AS Sora | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 40:50 | 38 |
| 14 | Recanatese | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 39:57 | 32 |
| 15 | San Marino Calcio | 34 | 8 | 7 | 19 | 33:61 | 31 |
| 16 | Calcio Chieti | 34 | 8 | 11 | 15 | 31:55 | 24 |
| 17 | Castelfidardo | 34 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 30:65 | 23 |
| 18 | Sammaurese | 34 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 30:69 | 20 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group F 2025/2026 (Play Out)
