Sport Picks

France

Ligue 2 2025/2026 Stade Bauer

Red Star

3 - 2

Guingamp

Our Tip

Match Events

Mafouta L.

Assist: Matumona J.

34'

Durand D.

35'

Ikanga J.

Assist: Pierret B.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 2 2025/2026 game between Red Star and Guingamp finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Red Star.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%

Red Star

17%

Draws

13%

Guingamp

Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Red Star

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence

Red Star carry the better recent record into this one.
Model gives Red Star a 70% chance of winning this.
Regular Ligue 2 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Red Star have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%

Red Star Clean Sheet 20%

Guingamp Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Red Star	Guingamp
Matches Played	26	27
Wins	10	8
Draws	8	7
Losses	8	12
Goals Scored	1.88	0.5
Goals Conceded	1.25	1.38
Expected Goals (xG)	1.88	0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.25	1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 24, 2026 Ligue 2

Red Star vs Guingamp

Possession: 47% - 40% Cards: 1 - 3

3:2

Aug 23, 2025 Ligue 2

Guingamp vs Red Star

Possession: 48% - 55% Cards: 3 - 0

0:4

Mar 1, 2025 Ligue 2

Red Star vs Guingamp

Possession: 44% - 44% Cards: 0 - 3

3:1

Aug 30, 2024 Ligue 2

Guingamp vs Red Star

Possession: 54% - 48% Cards: 4 - 2

3:4

May 7, 1999 Ligue 2

Guingamp vs Red Star

Possession: 53% - 55% Cards: 2 - 2

2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Red Star Compare

Top Goalscorer Durand D.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Ikanga J.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.45

Avg xA / game 0.94

Guingamp Compare

Top Goalscorer Mafouta L.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.45

Avg xA / game 0.28

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Red Star 67 / 100

Guingamp 14 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Red Star Guingamp

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick RED Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 4.60 goals when they meet.

Red Star found the back of the net in 65% of recent matches (26 games).

Guingamp's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 27 matches.

Solid form: Red Star remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Red Star VS Guingamp

1.88 Goals Scored 0.5

1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38

63% Over 1.5 50%

50% Over 2.5 25%

50% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Troyes	34	20	7	7	60:33	67
2	Le Mans	34	16	14	4	50:31	62
3	St Etienne	34	18	6	10	59:38	60
4	Red Star	34	16	10	8	45:37	58
5	Rodez	34	15	13	6	45:39	58
6	Reims	34	14	14	6	53:35	56
7	Annecy	34	15	7	12	49:39	52
8	Montpellier	34	14	9	11	41:31	51
9	Pau	34	12	9	13	48:62	45
10	Dunkerque	34	11	10	13	53:45	43
11	Guingamp	34	10	10	14	42:49	40
12	Grenoble	34	8	15	11	33:39	39
13	Clermont	34	9	10	15	38:44	37
14	Nancy	34	9	10	15	35:52	37
15	Boulogne	34	9	9	16	34:49	36
16	Laval	34	6	14	14	30:48	32
17	Bastia	34	5	13	16	23:39	28
18	Amiens SC	34	6	6	22	37:65	24
19	AC Ajaccio	0	0	0	0	0:0	0