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Red Star vs Rodez

France France

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Stade Bauer
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Cabral K.
Assist: Durand D.
29' Event
Balde I.
Assist: Arconte T.
61' Event
Escartin J.
Assist: Cabral K.

AI Match Summary

Rodez in this Ligue 1 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Rodez.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Red Star
39%
Draws
30%
Rodez
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Rodez have won more games recently than Red Star.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38.400000000000006%
Red Star Clean Sheet 14%
Rodez Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Red Star Rodez
Matches Played 26 27
Wins 10 16
Draws 8 9
Losses 8 2
Goals Scored 1.88 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 12, 2026 Ligue 1
Red Star vs Rodez
2:3
Jan 30, 2026 Ligue 2
Rodez vs Red Star
1:1
Oct 4, 2025 Ligue 2
Red Star vs Rodez
1:1
Mar 28, 2025 Ligue 2
Red Star vs Rodez
1:1
Jan 3, 2025 Ligue 2
Rodez vs Red Star
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Red Star Compare

Top Goalscorer Cabral K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Escartin J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Rodez Compare

Top Goalscorer Balde I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Magnin M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Red Star 31 / 100
Rodez 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Red Star Rodez

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ROD Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Rodez let in goals in 85% of their last 27 matches.

Attacking prowess: Red Star scored in 65% of their last 26 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Red Star has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Red Star VS Rodez
1.88 Goals Scored 1.63
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Nice-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
St Etienne-
TBD-
Red Star2
Rodez3
Semi-finals
Nice-
TBD-
St Etienne1
Rodez0
Final
Nice4
St Etienne1