Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Red Star vs Rodez

France France

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Stade Bauer, Paris - Saint-Ouen
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Cabral K.
Assist: Durand D.
29' Event
Balde I.
Assist: Arconte T.
61' Event
Escartin J.
Assist: Cabral K.

AI Match Summary

Rodez in this Ligue 1 2025/2026 tie, finishing 2-3. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Red Star
30%
Draws
23%
Rodez
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Red Star

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Rodez have won more games recently than Red Star.
  • Red Star are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • Rodez arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Rodez, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 39.6%
Red Star Clean Sheet 68%
Rodez Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Red Star Rodez
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 12 15
Draws 7 7
Losses 9 6
Goals Scored 1.46 1.82
Goals Conceded 1.39 1.43
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 12, 2026 Ligue 1
Red Star vs Rodez
2:3
Jan 30, 2026 Ligue 2
Rodez vs Red Star
1:1
Oct 4, 2025 Ligue 2
Red Star vs Rodez
1:1
Mar 28, 2025 Ligue 2
Red Star vs Rodez
1:1
Jan 3, 2025 Ligue 2
Rodez vs Red Star
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Red Star Compare

Top Goalscorer Cabral K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Escartin J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Rodez Compare

Top Goalscorer Balde I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Magnin M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Red Star 59 / 100
Rodez 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Red Star Rodez

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Red Star Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Rodez's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 28 matches.

Red Star scored in 79% of their last 28 games.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Red Star stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Red Star VS Rodez
1.38 Goals Scored 2
1.5 Goals Conceded 2.13
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Red Star

(Home)
14 Sept
Red Star
1 : 0
Metz
04 Sept
Laval
1 : 2
Red Star
29 Aug
Red Star
1 : 4
Reims
21 Aug
Boulogne
1 : 1
Red Star
14 Aug
Red Star
0 : 0
Sochaux
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Rodez

(Away)
18 Sept
Rodez
3 : 4
Nancy
11 Sept
Rodez
0 : 1
Grenoble
05 Sept
Metz
4 : 1
Rodez
28 Aug
Rodez
2 : 2
Pau
22 Aug
Nantes
2 : 5
Rodez
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Nice -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
St Etienne -
TBD -
Red Star 2
Rodez 3
Semi-finals
Nice -
TBD -
St Etienne 1
Rodez 0
Final
Nice 4
St Etienne 1