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Renate vs Novara - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group A Mino Favini, Meda
Renate Logo

Renate

1 - 2
FT
Novara Logo

Novara

Our Tip

Match Events

36'
Lorenzini F.
46'
Sub
Nichetti M. In: Romano M.
Out: Nichetti M.
46'
Sub
Lanini E. In: Zuppel D.
Out: Lanini E.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Novara in this Serie C - Group A matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Novara.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Renate
35%
Draws
35%
Novara
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Novara lately — more wins on the board than Renate.
  • 30% — that's where the model lands on Renate taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Renate Clean Sheet 68%
Novara Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Renate Novara
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 11
Draws 9 7
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 1.52 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 7, 2026 Serie C - Group A
Renate vs Novara
1:2
Mar 28, 2026 Serie C - Group A
Renate vs Novara
3:1
Nov 23, 2025 Serie C - Group A
Novara vs Renate
0:1
Feb 23, 2025 Serie C - Group A
Novara vs Renate
1:0
Oct 11, 2024 Serie C - Group A
Renate vs Novara
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Renate Compare

Top Goalscorer Auriletto S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Novara Compare

Top Goalscorer Cannavaro A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Zuppel D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Renate 86 / 100
Novara 11 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Renate Novara

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Renate Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Renate scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: Novara conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Renate remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Renate VS Novara
0.88 Goals Scored 0.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Renate

(Home)
01 Nov
Carpi
0 : 5
Renate
25 Oct
Renate
0 : 0
AlbinoLeffe
19 Oct
Juventus U23
2 : 1
Renate
11 Oct
Renate
2 : 2
Giana Erminio
03 Oct
Ospitaletto
1 : 1
Renate
Page 1 of 6

Novara

(Away)
02 Nov
Novara
1 : 0
Desenzano Calvina
25 Oct
Arzignano
2 : 0
Novara
18 Oct
AlbinoLeffe
2 : 2
Novara
10 Oct
Novara
0 : 2
Cittadella
04 Oct
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1 : 2
Novara
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cittadella 12 10 0 2 19:6 30
2 Union Brescia 13 8 4 1 26:11 28
3 Trento 12 6 6 0 17:6 24
4 Arzignano 13 6 3 4 19:15 21
5 Ospitaletto 12 5 4 3 18:11 19
6 Treviso 12 5 4 3 12:9 19
7 Alcione Milano 13 4 6 3 21:19 18
8 Lecco 12 4 5 3 18:11 17
9 AlbinoLeffe 12 4 5 3 19:17 17
10 Pergolettese 12 4 5 3 12:12 17
11 Lumezzane 13 4 4 5 14:17 16
12 Desenzano Calvina 12 3 4 5 10:14 13
13 Novara 12 3 4 5 11:16 13
14 Pro Vercelli 12 3 4 5 11:20 13
15 Carpi 12 3 3 6 16:26 12
16 Giana Erminio 12 2 5 5 13:17 11
17 Juventus U23 12 2 5 5 12:19 11
18 Dolomiti Bellunesi 12 2 4 6 8:18 10
19 Renate 12 1 5 6 14:16 8
20 Folgore Caratese 12 1 4 7 11:21 7
Promotion - Serie B 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C - Group A (Play Out)