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Stadium Background

Rennes vs Lille

France France

Ligue 1 2025/2026 Roazhon Park, Rennes
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Fernandez-Pardo M.
Assist: Ngoy N.
16'
Bentaleb N.
47' Event
Haraldsson H.
Assist: Fernandez-Pardo M.

AI Match Summary

Lille in this Ligue 1 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lille.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Rennes
33%
Draws
40%
Lille
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Lille

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Rennes have won more games recently than Lille.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Lille taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Rennes Clean Sheet 13%
Lille Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Rennes Lille
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 18 15
Draws 2 5
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 2.13 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.88 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 2.13 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 15, 2026 Ligue 1
Rennes vs Lille
1:2
Jan 3, 2026 Ligue 1
Lille vs Rennes
0:2
Feb 16, 2025 Ligue 1
Rennes vs Lille
0:2
Nov 24, 2024 Ligue 1
Lille vs Rennes
1:0
Mar 10, 2024 Ligue 1
Lille vs Rennes
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Rennes Compare

Top Goalscorer Lepaul E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.64
Avg xA / game 1.06

Lille Compare

Top Goalscorer Fernandez-Pardo M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Haraldsson H.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Rennes 27 / 100
Lille 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Rennes Lille

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LIL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Rennes's goal record stands at 83% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Defensive concern: Lille conceded in 58% of 31 recent games.

Rennes has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Rennes VS Lille
2.13 Goals Scored 1.5
1.88 Goals Conceded 0.5
100% Over 1.5 63%
100% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Rennes

(Home)
17 Jul
Rennes
3 : 1
Guingamp
09 Jul
Rennes
1 : 2
Caen
17 May
Marseille
3 : 1
Rennes
10 May
Rennes
2 : 1
Paris FC
03 May
Lyon
4 : 2
Rennes
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Lille

(Away)
18 Jul
Lille
3 : 0
RAAL La Louviere
17 May
Lille
0 : 2
Auxerre
10 May
Monaco
0 : 1
Lille
03 May
Lille
1 : 1
Le Havre
26 Apr
Paris FC
0 : 1
Lille
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1PSG34244674:2976
2Lens34224866:3570
3Lille34187952:3761
4Lyon341861053:4060
5Marseille341851163:4559
6Rennes34178959:5059
7Monaco341661260:5454
8Strasbourg341581158:4753
9Toulouse341291347:4645
10Lorient3411121148:5145
11Paris FC3411111247:5044
12Brest341091543:5539
13Angers34991629:4836
14Le Havre347141332:4435
15Auxerre348101634:4434
16Nice347111637:6032
17Nantes34592029:5224
18Metz34382332:7617
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligue 1 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Relegation - Ligue 2 (Main)