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Renown vs UP Country Lions - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Sri Lanka Sri Lanka

Super League
Our Tip

Match Events

40' Event
Ishan M.
76' Event
Aakib M.

AI Match Summary

UP Country Lions in this Super League matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored UP Country Lions.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Renown
20%
Draws
60%
UP Country Lions
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: UP Country Lions

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

60% / High Confidence
  • Renown haven't matched UP Country Lions's recent run of results.
  • 60% — that's where the model lands on UP Country Lions taking it.
  • Regular Super League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Renown Clean Sheet 10%
UP Country Lions Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Renown UP Country Lions
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 16 19
Draws 6 1
Losses 7 9
Goals Scored 1.93 2.45
Goals Conceded 1.03 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 2.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Super League
Renown vs UP Country Lions
0:2
Jan 7, 2022 Super League
Renown vs UP Country Lions
1:0
Jan 16, 2019 Super League
UP Country Lions vs Renown
4:1
Sep 9, 2017 Super League
Renown vs UP Country Lions
4:1
Sep 26, 2015 Super League
UP Country Lions vs Renown
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Renown Compare

Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

UP Country Lions Compare

Top Goalscorer Ishan M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Aakib M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.22
Avg xA / game 1.36

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Renown 10 / 100
UP Country Lions 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Renown UP Country Lions

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UP Country Lions Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Renown's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

UP Country Lions's defensive record shows goals conceded in 62% of 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Renown went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Renown VS UP Country Lions
3.13 Goals Scored 4.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Renown

(Home)
13 Sept
Renown
0 : 2
UP Country Lions
04 Sept
Blue Eagles
2 : 0
Renown
29 Aug
Blue Star
2 : 3
Renown
25 Aug
Sea Hawks
2 : 2
Renown
15 Aug
Renown
0 : 0
Red Star
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UP Country Lions

(Away)
13 Sept
Renown
0 : 2
UP Country Lions
08 Sept
Colombo
0 : 2
UP Country Lions
28 Aug
UP Country Lions
4 : 0
Blue Eagles
22 Aug
UP Country Lions
6 : 0
New Young's SC
16 Aug
Ratnam SC
1 : 5
UP Country Lions
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UP Country Lions 9 9 0 0 35:3 27
2 Sea Hawks 9 5 3 1 17:4 18
3 Colombo 9 4 4 1 14:5 16
4 Renown 9 4 3 2 21:8 15
5 Red Star 9 4 3 2 16:11 15
6 Blue Star 9 4 1 4 16:19 13
7 Blue Eagles 9 3 1 5 8:12 10
8 Defenders FC 9 2 1 6 11:17 7
9 New Young's SC 9 1 2 6 7:36 5
10 Ratnam SC 9 0 0 9 5:35 0
Promotion - Super League (Championship Group)
Relegation - Super League (Relegation Group)