Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Resende vs Marica

Brazil Brazil

Carioca 2
Our Tip

Match Events

78' Event
Matheus Goiano

AI Match Summary

Resende in this Carioca 2 tie, finishing 1-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Resende
44%
Draws
20%
Marica
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Resende average 1.75 goals a game right now, well clear of Marica's 0.75.
  • 44% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Resende, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 24%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 26.8%
Resende Clean Sheet 26%
Marica Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Resende Marica
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 12 12
Draws 9 8
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 1.75 0.75
Goals Conceded 0.88 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 18, 2026 Carioca 2
Marica vs Resende
1:1
Jul 11, 2026 Carioca 2
Resende vs Marica
1:0
Apr 29, 2026 Carioca 2
Resende vs Marica
4:0
Jul 13, 2024 Carioca 2
Marica vs Resende
1:0
Jul 26, 2023 Carioca 2
Resende vs Marica
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Resende Compare

Top Goalscorer Matheus Goiano
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Marica Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Resende 38 / 100
Marica 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Resende Marica

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Resende scored in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Marica's defensive record shows goals conceded in 61% of 31 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Resende stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Resende VS Marica
1.75 Goals Scored 0.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.5
50% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Resende

(Home)
25 Jul
Resende
1 : 0
Americano
22 Jul
Sampaio Correa FE
2 : 0
Resende
18 Jul
Marica
1 : 1
Resende
15 Jul
Resende
0 : 1
Sampaio Correa FE
11 Jul
Resende
1 : 0
Marica
Page 1 of 6

Marica

(Away)
22 Jul
Marica
3 : 0
Perolas Negras
18 Jul
Marica
1 : 1
Resende
15 Jul
Perolas Negras
0 : 0
Marica
11 Jul
Resende
1 : 0
Marica
04 Jul
Marica
2 : 0
Perolas Negras
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Americano4
America RJ1
Marica1
Resende2
Final
Americano0
Resende1