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Retro vs Ceara

Brazil Brazil

Copa do Nordeste Arena Pernambuco, São Lourenço da Mata
Our Tip

Match Events

22'
Vinicius Zanocelo
23'
Sub
Vinicius Zanocelo In: Lucas Lima
Out: Vinicius Zanocelo
35'
Costa S.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 3-1. The second leg ended 3-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Retro
30%
Draws
33%
Ceara
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Retro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Retro carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Retro's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Retro have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Retro, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Retro Clean Sheet 68%
Ceara Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Retro Ceara
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 10 8
Draws 8 8
Losses 12 15
Goals Scored 1.17 1.16
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 0.80
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 28, 2026 Copa do Nordeste
Retro vs Ceara
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Retro Compare

Top Goalscorer Fernandinho
1 Goals
Assists Leader Radsley
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Ceara Compare

Top Goalscorer Matheusinho
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.73
Avg xA / game 0.44

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Retro 50 / 100
Ceara 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Retro Ceara

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Retro Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ceara's defensive record shows goals conceded in 90% of 31 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Attacking prowess: Retro scored in 70% of their last 30 outings.

Retro has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Retro VS Ceara
1.5 Goals Scored 0.5
0 Goals Conceded 1.13
50% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Retro

(Home)
14 Jun
Retro
3 : 0
Treze PB
31 May
Serra Branca
0 : 0
Retro
24 May
Retro
1 : 1
Lagarto
17 May
Retro
2 : 1
Decisao
09 May
Sergipe
1 : 0
Retro
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Ceara

(Away)
13 Sept
Fortaleza
1 : 1
Ceara
10 Sept
Atletico GO
2 : 1
Ceara
05 Sept
Ceara
2 : 1
Sport Recife
30 Aug
Vila Nova FC
2 : 0
Ceara
22 Aug
Ceara
2 : 1
Londrina
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