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Retro vs Ceara

Brazil Brazil

Copa do Nordeste Arena Pernambuco, São Lourenço da Mata
Our Tip

Match Events

22'
Vinicius Zanocelo
23'
Sub
Vinicius Zanocelo In: Lucas Lima
Out: Vinicius Zanocelo
35'
Costa S.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 3-1, with Retro advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Retro
28%
Draws
22%
Ceara
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Retro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Retro carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Retro's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Retro have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Retro, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 67.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Retro Clean Sheet 68%
Ceara Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Retro Ceara
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 10 9
Draws 8 9
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.2 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.6 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.60 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 28, 2026 Copa do Nordeste
Retro vs Ceara
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Retro Compare

Top Goalscorer Fernandinho
1 Goals
Assists Leader Radsley
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Ceara Compare

Top Goalscorer Matheusinho
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Retro 59 / 100
Ceara 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Retro Ceara

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick RET Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Retro scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Ceara has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Retro has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Retro VS Ceara
1.2 Goals Scored 1.13
0.6 Goals Conceded 1.38
60% Over 1.5 75%
40% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Retro

(Home)
14 Jun
Retro
3 : 0
Treze PB
31 May
Serra Branca
0 : 0
Retro
24 May
Retro
1 : 1
Lagarto
17 May
Retro
2 : 1
Decisao
09 May
Sergipe
1 : 0
Retro
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Ceara

(Away)
26 Jul
Sao Bernardo
3 : 4
Ceara
22 Jul
Ceara
0 : 1
CRB
17 Jul
America MG
1 : 1
Ceara
13 Jul
Ceara
0 : 0
Athletic Club
04 Jul
Goias
2 : 0
Ceara
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