Sport Picks

Stadium Background

RFC Liege vs Lommel SK

Belgium Belgium

Jupiler Pro League 2025/2026 Stade de Rocourt, Liège
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Vancsa Z.
Assist: De Grand S.
18' Event
Vancsa Z.
Assist: Seuntjens R.
25'
Bustin J.

AI Match Summary

Lommel SK in this Jupiler Pro League 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-2. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
RFC Liege
30%
Draws
41%
Lommel SK
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lommel SK

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Lommel SK have won more games recently than RFC Liege.
  • Win probability leans RFC Liege's way, sitting at 36%.
  • Lommel SK arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Lommel SK, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
RFC Liege Clean Sheet 20%
Lommel SK Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric RFC Liege Lommel SK
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 10 14
Draws 9 7
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1.76 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 27, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
RFC Liege vs Lommel SK
1:2
Apr 23, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
Lommel SK vs RFC Liege
3:0
Jan 27, 2026 Challenger Pro League
RFC Liege vs Lommel SK
1:0
Sep 28, 2025 Challenger Pro League
Lommel SK vs RFC Liege
0:1
Jan 26, 2025 Challenger Pro League
Lommel SK vs RFC Liege
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

RFC Liege Compare

Top Goalscorer Hazard K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Lommel SK Compare

Top Goalscorer Vancsa Z.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

RFC Liege 36 / 100
Lommel SK 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
RFC Liege Lommel SK

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Lommel SK conceded in 81% of 31 recent games.

RFC Liege found the back of the net in 72% of recent matches (29 games).

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

RFC Liege has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

RFC Liege VS Lommel SK
2.63 Goals Scored 0.75
1 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 38%
63% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

RFC Liege

(Home)
19 Sept
Eupen
3 : 1
RFC Liege
13 Sept
RFC Liege
4 : 4
Club Brugge U23
06 Sept
Lierse SK
0 : 0
RFC Liege
29 Aug
RFC Liege
1 : 2
Dender
23 Aug
Genk U23
2 : 3
RFC Liege
Page 1 of 6

Lommel SK

(Away)
19 Sept
Lommel SK
0 : 0
KV Mechelen
12 Sept
Royale Union SG
5 : 0
Lommel SK
04 Sept
Lommel SK
0 : 1
Club Brugge
29 Aug
Cercle Brugge
0 : 1
Lommel SK
23 Aug
Lommel SK
4 : 0
Westerlo
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Dender -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Beerschot VA 4
Patro Eisden 3
RFC Liege 1
Lommel SK 5
Semi-finals
Dender -
TBD -
Beerschot VA 2
Lommel SK 6
Final
Dender 2
Lommel SK 3