Sport Picks

Stadium Background

RFS vs Jelgava Prediction & H2H Stats

Latvia Latvia

Latvian Cup LNK Sporta Parks, Riga
RFS Logo

RFS

2 - 0
FT
Jelgava Logo

Jelgava

Our Tip

Match Events

2'
Novikovs J.
37' Event
Savalnieks R.
46'
Sub
Saidy M. In: Kumater S.
Out: Saidy M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-0. The second leg ended 2-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
RFS
30%
Draws
33%
Jelgava
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: RFS

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and RFS come out ahead of Jelgava on wins alone.
  • 37% — that's where the model lands on RFS taking it.
  • RFS have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor RFS, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and RFS have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
RFS Clean Sheet 68%
Jelgava Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric RFS Jelgava
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 24 7
Draws 5 7
Losses 4 16
Goals Scored 2.24 0.97
Goals Conceded 0.79 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 20, 2026 Virsliga
Jelgava vs RFS
0:1
Jul 12, 2026 Latvian Cup
RFS vs Jelgava
2:0
May 21, 2026 Virsliga
RFS vs Jelgava
4:0
Apr 8, 2026 Virsliga
Jelgava vs RFS
0:1
Sep 13, 2025 Virsliga
RFS vs Jelgava
1:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

RFS Compare

Top Goalscorer Savalnieks R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lemajic D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Jelgava Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

RFS 50 / 100
Jelgava 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
RFS Jelgava

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick RFS Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

RFS's goal record stands at 94% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

Jelgava has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

RFS has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

RFS VS Jelgava
2 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

RFS

(Home)
20 Sept
FK Auda Riga
1 : 1
RFS
13 Sept
BFC Daugavpils
1 : 2
RFS
07 Sept
RFS
0 : 0
FK Liepaja
03 Sept
RFS
2 : 3
Riga FC
30 Aug
Ogre United
0 : 3
RFS
Page 1 of 7

Jelgava

(Away)
19 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1
Riga FC
12 Sept
Grobina
0 : 0
Jelgava
05 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1
Super Nova
29 Aug
Tukums 2000
1 : 4
Jelgava
22 Aug
Ogre United
2 : 3
Jelgava
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
RFK/RFS 0
Riga Mariners 11
Iecava 0
Alberts JDFS 5
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
BFC Daugavpils -
LSPA 1
FK Smiltene 5
Valmiera 2
Skanste 0
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Ogre United -
FK Auda Riga -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
FK Liepaja -
JFC Viola 1
Marupe 2
Valka 1
Aliance 5
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Grobina -
Tukums 2000 -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Super Nova -
RFS -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Jelgava -
Upesciema Warriors 0
JFK Ventspils 3
DSVK Traktors 3
Leevon PPK 5
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Riga FC -
Lielupe 0
FK Metta 6
Kekava-Auda 2
Rezekne 1
Saldus NSS 0
Salaspils FK 4
Speks 6
FK Union / JFK Daugava 0
1/16-finals
Riga Mariners 1
Alberts JDFS 0
TBD -
BFC Daugavpils -
FK Smiltene 1
Valmiera 4
TBD -
Ogre United -
FK Auda Riga -
TBD -
TBD -
FK Liepaja -
Marupe 4
Aliance 2
TBD -
Grobina -
Tukums 2000 -
TBD -
TBD -
Super Nova -
RFS -
TBD -
TBD -
Jelgava -
JFK Ventspils 1
Leevon PPK 3
TBD -
Riga FC -
FK Metta 5
Kekava-Auda 0
Salaspils FK 1
Speks 3
1/8-finals
Riga Mariners 3
BFC Daugavpils 4
Valmiera 2
Ogre United 4
FK Auda Riga 1
FK Liepaja 0
Marupe 0
Grobina 1
Tukums 2000 1
Super Nova 2
RFS 2
Jelgava 0
Leevon PPK 2
Riga FC 3
FK Metta 3
Speks 1
Quarter-finals
BFC Daugavpils 3
Ogre United 1
FK Auda Riga 3
Grobina 2
Super Nova 0
RFS 1
Riga FC 4
FK Metta 1
Semi-finals
BFC Daugavpils 2
FK Auda Riga 3
RFS 2
Riga FC 3
Final
FK Auda Riga -
Riga FC -