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RFS vs Jelgava - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Latvia Latvia

Virsliga Bislett Stadium, Oslo
RFS Logo

RFS

Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Jelgava Logo

Jelgava

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

RFS host Jelgava in the Virsliga. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Jelgava have shipped 1.63 goals a game lately, while RFS have conceded 0.79 and scored 2.24. Head-to-head, RFS have won 4 to Jelgava's 1, with 0 draws. They last met on Jul 20, 2026, ending 0:1. The numbers (1.63 xG vs 1.06) point toward RFS. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
RFS
30%
Draws
33%
Jelgava
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: RFS

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to RFS lately — more wins on the board than Jelgava.
  • Win probability leans RFS's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Virsliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and RFS have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
RFS Clean Sheet 20%
Jelgava Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric RFS Jelgava
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 24 7
Draws 5 7
Losses 4 16
Goals Scored 2.24 0.97
Goals Conceded 0.79 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 20, 2026 Virsliga
Jelgava vs RFS
0:1
Jul 12, 2026 Latvian Cup
RFS vs Jelgava
2:0
May 21, 2026 Virsliga
RFS vs Jelgava
4:0
Apr 8, 2026 Virsliga
Jelgava vs RFS
0:1
Sep 13, 2025 Virsliga
RFS vs Jelgava
1:4

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

RFS 40 / 100
Jelgava 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
RFS Jelgava

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick RFS Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

RFS found the back of the net in 94% of recent matches (33 games).

Jelgava has conceded goals in 83% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.60 goals per match.

Solid form: RFS remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

RFS VS Jelgava
2 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

RFS

(Home)
20 Sept
FK Auda Riga
1 : 1
RFS
13 Sept
BFC Daugavpils
1 : 2
RFS
07 Sept
RFS
0 : 0
FK Liepaja
03 Sept
RFS
2 : 3
Riga FC
30 Aug
Ogre United
0 : 3
RFS
Page 1 of 7

Jelgava

(Away)
19 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1
Riga FC
12 Sept
Grobina
0 : 0
Jelgava
05 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1
Super Nova
29 Aug
Tukums 2000
1 : 4
Jelgava
22 Aug
Ogre United
2 : 3
Jelgava
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 30 23 5 2 71:22 74
2 Riga FC 31 22 7 2 86:30 73
3 FK Auda Riga 31 18 7 6 49:30 61
4 FK Liepaja 31 12 7 12 41:43 43
5 BFC Daugavpils 31 10 9 12 35:35 39
6 Super Nova 30 10 5 15 29:40 35
7 Jelgava 31 8 8 15 32:49 32
8 Grobina 31 5 11 15 21:52 26
9 Tukums 2000 31 5 9 17 44:61 24
10 Ogre United 31 4 6 21 30:76 18
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)