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Riga FC 2 vs Valmiera

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Nakotnes liga
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AI Match Summary

Riga FC 2 play Valmiera in the Nakotnes liga. It looks like a close match. Recently, Riga FC 2 averaged 1.57 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. Valmiera averaged 2.57 goals scored and 1.64 conceded. In past meetings, Riga FC 2 won 0, Valmiera won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 21, 2026 ended 1:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.38 for Riga FC 2 and 2.06 for Valmiera. This points to a Valmiera double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Riga FC 2
15%
Draws
53%
Valmiera
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Valmiera

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

79% / High Confidence
  • Riga FC 2 picked up more points recently compared to Valmiera.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.38 vs 2.06 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 68%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 85%
Over 2.5 Goals 68%
Over 3.5 Goals 41%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 59%
Riga FC 2 Clean Sheet 10%
Valmiera Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 77%
Second Half Goal 81%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Riga FC 2 Valmiera
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 11 16
Draws 5 3
Losses 14 9
Goals Scored 1.57 2.57
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.64
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.00 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 Nakotnes liga
Riga FC 2 vs Valmiera
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Riga FC 2 Compare

Top Goalscorer Prudchenko N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Valmiera Compare

Top Goalscorer Buss R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Dembele M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Riga FC 2 31 / 100
Valmiera 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Riga FC 2 Valmiera

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Valmiera Win (2)
Secondary Pick Valmiera & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +33.4%
4.17
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +9.5%
1.61
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Riga FC 2 attacking → ← attacking Valmiera

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Riga FC 2 scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Valmiera let in goals in 75% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Riga FC 2 went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Valmiera lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

38 Points in last 5 51
1.75 Goals expected (xG) 2.13
2.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1FK Metta12101142:1131
2Valmiera1292132:1229
3Riga Mariners1284025:1028
4Leevon PPK1273220:1524
5Alberts JDFS1262425:2020
6Marupe1261522:1519
7Super Nova 21254319:1719
8Riga FC 21251619:2216
9Skanste1141620:2113
10RFS 21223715:269
11Tukums 2000 21222816:318
12JFK Ventspils1114612:207
13Rezekne1212910:365
14FK Smiltene1204812:334