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Riga Mariners vs JFK Ventspils

Latvia Latvia

1. Liga
Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
Bullat K.
82' Event
Stuglis E.

AI Match Summary

The 1. Liga game between Riga Mariners and JFK Ventspils finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

71%
Riga Mariners
20%
Draws
9%
JFK Ventspils
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Riga Mariners

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Riga Mariners come out ahead of JFK Ventspils on wins alone.
  • Riga Mariners are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.2%
Riga Mariners Clean Sheet 68%
JFK Ventspils Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Riga Mariners JFK Ventspils
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 20 5
Draws 7 9
Losses 4 15
Goals Scored 2.61 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.16 1.69
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 25, 2026 1. Liga
Riga Mariners vs JFK Ventspils
1:1
Mar 21, 2026 1. Liga
JFK Ventspils vs Riga Mariners
0:1
Sep 13, 2025 1. Liga
JFK Ventspils vs Riga Mariners
1:2
May 3, 2025 1. Liga
Riga Mariners vs JFK Ventspils
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Riga Mariners Compare

Top Goalscorer Stuglis E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03

JFK Ventspils Compare

Top Goalscorer Bullat K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Riga Mariners 95 / 100
JFK Ventspils 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Riga Mariners JFK Ventspils

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Riga Mariners Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Riga Mariners's goal record stands at 97% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

Solid form: Riga Mariners remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

JFK Ventspils has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.25 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Riga Mariners VS JFK Ventspils
2.63 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Riga Mariners

(Home)
05 Sept
Riga Mariners
5 : 0
Rezekne
29 Aug
Riga Mariners
3 : 1
RFS 2
24 Aug
Riga FC 2
1 : 3
Riga Mariners
09 Aug
Riga Mariners
4 : 2
Tukums 2000 2
31 Jul
Super Nova 2
0 : 3
Riga Mariners
Page 1 of 7

JFK Ventspils

(Away)
05 Sept
RFS 2
4 : 1
JFK Ventspils
29 Aug
JFK Ventspils
1 : 1
Riga FC 2
08 Aug
JFK Ventspils
0 : 2
Super Nova 2
02 Aug
JFK Ventspils
1 : 2
FK Smiltene
25 Jul
Riga Mariners
1 : 1
JFK Ventspils
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Valmiera 19 15 3 1 56:18 48
2 FK Metta 19 15 3 1 79:16 48
3 Leevon PPK 19 14 3 2 36:21 45
4 Riga Mariners 19 13 5 1 45:17 44
5 Alberts JDFS 19 11 4 4 40:26 37
6 Marupe 19 8 1 10 29:32 25
7 Riga FC 2 19 7 3 9 28:36 24
8 Super Nova 2 19 6 6 7 26:28 24
9 Skanste 19 7 2 10 39:38 23
10 RFS 2 19 4 3 12 28:52 15
11 JFK Ventspils 18 2 6 10 20:33 12
12 Tukums 2000 2 18 3 3 12 23:54 12
13 FK Smiltene 19 2 4 13 23:56 10
14 Rezekne 19 1 2 16 14:59 5
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