Sport Picks

Latvia

Nakotnes liga

Riga Mariners

3 - 1

Valmiera

Our Tip

Match Events

23'

Lopes G.

52'

Pavlovskis A.

68'

Owusu R.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Riga Mariners in this Nakotnes liga matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Riga Mariners.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%

Riga Mariners

30%

Draws

34%

Valmiera

Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Riga Mariners

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence

Riga Mariners have won more games recently than Valmiera.
Win probability leans Riga Mariners's way, sitting at 36%.
Regular Nakotnes liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 70%

Over 4.5 Goals 32%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%

Riga Mariners Clean Sheet 20%

Valmiera Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Riga Mariners	Valmiera
Matches Played	30	28
Wins	19	16
Draws	7	3
Losses	4	9
Goals Scored	3.25	2
Goals Conceded	0.38	0.88
Expected Goals (xG)	3.25	2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.38	0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Nakotnes liga

Riga Mariners vs Valmiera

Possession: 60% - 52% Cards: 3 - 2

3:1

Jun 22, 2025 Latvian Cup

Riga Mariners vs Valmiera

Possession: 53% - 49% Cards: 3 - 3

4:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Riga Mariners Compare

Top Goalscorer Pavlovskis A.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Owusu R.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 2.5

Avg xA / game 1.63

Valmiera Compare

Top Goalscorer Lopes G.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.82

Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Riga Mariners 36 / 100

Valmiera 33 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Riga Mariners Valmiera

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Riga Mariners's goal record stands at 93% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 5.50 goals as a typical output.

Defensive concern: Valmiera conceded in 75% of 28 recent games.

Riga Mariners went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Riga Mariners VS Valmiera

3.25 Goals Scored 2

0.38 Goals Conceded 0.88

75% Over 1.5 88%

50% Over 2.5 50%

50% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FK Metta	12	10	1	1	42:11	31
2	Valmiera	12	9	2	1	32:12	29
3	Riga Mariners	12	8	4	0	25:10	28
4	Leevon PPK	12	7	3	2	20:15	24
5	Alberts JDFS	12	6	2	4	25:20	20
6	Marupe	12	6	1	5	22:15	19
7	Super Nova 2	12	5	4	3	19:17	19
8	Riga FC 2	12	5	1	6	19:22	16
9	Skanste	12	4	1	7	20:24	13
10	JFK Ventspils	12	2	4	6	15:20	10
11	RFS 2	12	2	3	7	15:26	9
12	Tukums 2000 2	12	2	2	8	16:31	8
13	Rezekne	12	1	2	9	10:36	5
14	FK Smiltene	12	0	4	8	12:33	4